Predicting Wisconsin's Full NCAA Tournament Path: Badgers Shed Postseason Demons

Can the Badgers get back to the Sweet 16 for the first time in nine years?

Mar 14, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard Nick Boyd (2) drives to the basket against the Michigan Wolverines. | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

As Wisconsin gears up for its third NCAA Tournament in three years, a dark cloud hangs over the Badgers.

As successful as this program has been (five straight 20-plus win seasons, seven NCAA Tournament appearances in 10 full seasons under head coach Greg Gard), the Badgers haven't been to the second weekend of the tournament — the Sweet 16 — since the 2016-2017 season.

To shed the albatross around its neck, Wisconsin once again has a perilous trek through the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament to what it hasn't done since Gard's first full season at the helm.

Will the Badgers party like it's 2017? Below, Badgers On SI breaks down Wisconsin's impending March Madness run and predicts its full journey through the 2026 bracket:

Round of 64: Wisconsin vs. High Point

High Point is an experienced team that used an efficient offense to roll through an exceedingly weak Big South Conference. The Panthers do plenty of things well and have a few key areas to hang their hat on, but there's nothing particularly alarming about their metrics or roster.

The first thing that jumps out about High Point is its efficient offense by mid-major standards (adjusted offensive efficiency ranks 66th on KenPom) that does an excellent job limiting turnovers. High Point ranks fifth in the country in both offensive and defensive turnover percentage, meaning it plays with elite ball security and creates plenty of turnovers on defense.

However, Wisconsin is tremendous at taking care of the ball (third-lowest offensive turnover percentage in the nation, lowest steal rate in the nation). What's more, while High Point has built an efficient offense largely around getting to the paint, its tallest regularly-deployed player is just 6-foot-8. The Badgers will have the clear size advantage down low.

The Panthers have also won 14 straight and enter the Tournament red-hot, but also haven't played — or beaten — a team ranked higher than 131 in the NET in that span. They're far from battle-tested, and arguably their toughest opponent, UAB, beat them handily, 94-71.

Prediction: Wisconsin 86, High Point 73

Round of 32: Wisconsin vs. Arkansas

Arkansas guard Darius Acuff Jr. (5) gets past Vanderbilt forward Jalen Washington (13). | ANDREW NELLES / THE TENNESSEAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This is the game that makes you wonder why the NCAA Tournament selection committee despises the Badgers so much.

But in all seriousness, this is a brutal Round of 32 matchup and another daunting roadblock standing in the way of Wisconsin exorcising its Sweet 16 demons.

We'll assume Arkansas beats Hawaii here, with the Hogs' star power and momentum following an SEC Tournament title proving too much for the Rainbow Warriors and their plucky "no-help" defense. That should lead to one of the most highly-anticipated Round of 32 games in the entire bracket.

Any John Calipari-coached team is going to be a compelling watch, but 2025-26 Arkansas has been fireworks all year. The Hogs boast the No. 6-ranked offense in the nation by adjusted efficiency, and their potent offense looks quite similar to Wisconsin's: they shoot the three extremely well and they don't turn the ball over. Oh, and they deploy a star point guard who averages over 20 points-per-game. Sound familiar?

Between the aforementioned Darius Acuff, Meleek Thomas, Nick Boyd and John Blackwell, the guard play in this game should be outstanding.

Still, Arkansas isn't the best at attacking the rim or defending the paint. If Wisconsin gets Nolan Winter back by Saturday, the Badgers should have the advantage down low when factoring in the development of Aleksas Bieliauskas and Austin Rapp, even just over the past two weeks. And while Acuff has been nothing short of phenomenal and should be an NBA Lottery pick, I'd put Boyd and Blackwell up against any guard/backcourt in the nation right now.

Wisconsin wins an all-timer in the Round of 32 and at long last, returns to the Sweet 16.

Prediction: Wisconsin 91, Arkansas 90

Sweet 16: Wisconsin vs. Arizona

Arizona Wildcats guard Brayden Burries (5) drives to the hoop past Houston Cougars guard Kingston Flemings (4). | William Purnell-Imagn Images

The last time the Badgers played Arizona, they stunned the Wildcats 103-88 in the Kohl Center in November of 2024. Still, that was a much different Wildcats team, and this iteration of Arizona is significantly more dangerous.

Arizona has five players that average double-digit points, with another two averaging 9.0-plus. It's a deep, talented team, that at least on paper, has no real weaknesses.

The Wildcats didn't lose until Feb. 9, when they lost two consecutive games to Kansas and Texas Tech, and they haven't lost since. They have too many outstanding metrics to list all of them, but here's one that sums up their dominance succinctly: Arizona hits a very respectable 36.0 percent of its three-pointers, good enough for 57th nationally. However, it hardly relies on long-range shots, as only four of 366 D-I teams take a lower percentage of threes. The Wildcats are good in areas they don't even try to be.

Wisconsin can — and will — compete with any team in the country. But I can't in good conscience pick the Badgers to upset a team this dominant.

Prediction: Arizona 79, Wisconsin 71