3 Matchups That Will Decide the Game Between Wisconsin and No. 13 Penn State

Do the Badgers have any upset magic in store?

Wisconsin offensive lineman Kevin Heywood (55) is shown during the second quarter of their game against Eastern Michigan Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The past two weeks, I’ve written this piece about key matchups, but they haven’t been matchups that were actually going to sway the result of the game. This week, however, I think the matchups I’ve chosen can legitimately turn the tides in one team’s favor.

Winning in Happy Valley against Penn State is an uphill task, but if Wisconsin can come out on top in the following matchups, and get some help, I think it has a chance.

Offensive line versus the Penn State front seven

With injuries during camp to key players on the line, Eric Mateos’ group has been the subject of many discussions already this season. On Saturday in Happy Valley, I think it will have a lot to do with the outcome of the game.

Through three games, none against power-conference opponents, Penn State has tallied just four sacks. Colton Joseph has been sacked just twice so far, both coming against Notre Dame, and you could make a strong argument that neither one was a true sack, rather a run-stuff when he tried to take off.

Size-wise, the Penn State defensive front will look more like Notre Dame than it does Western Illinois or Eastern Michigan. For Wisconsin to have any real shot in this contest, it will have to move the ball through the air. Its best chance to do that is to give Joseph a clean pocket to throw from, which is easier said than done against a group as physical as Penn State’s front seven.

In the run game, Penn State has been fairly sound, allowing just 1.7 and 3.0 yards-per-carry against Marshall and Buffalo, respectively. In its game against Temple, however, the Owls rushed for 176 yards on 5.3 yards-per-carry. 

Wisconsin offensive lineman Emerson Mandell (75) is shown during the fourth quarter of their game Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin. Wisconsin beat Eastern Michigan 54-10. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Despite the offensive fireworks against Eastern Michigan, the Badgers weren’t particularly dominant on the ground. Establishing the run to give Joseph less chances for mistakes will be a key and the Nittany Lions’ defense has proved vulnerable to the run at times.

The lingering question of Emerson Mandell’s health remains relevant. He made his debut, albeit briefly, last week, but whether or not he plays, a strong day from the offensive line is necessary for any upset chance.

Mason Posa and Cooper Catalano versus Carson Hansen

This matchup goes from the entirety of Wisconsin’s front seven, but I think Posa and Catalano will be most involved in the gameplan for Hansen. After coming over from Iowa State with Campbell, Hansen’s numbers haven’t been gaudy, but he’s been productive and is going to start on Saturday. 

In three games, he’s rushed 35 times for 169 yards, averaging 4.8 per attempt. It took until Week 3 for him to find the end zone, but I don’t necessarily view that as a knock on his production. 

The biggest news of the week for Penn State is that wide receiver Koby Howard will miss an extended period, including Saturday’s tilt, so the Nittany Lion offense will be looking for others to create chunk plays. Campbell obviously trusts Rocco Becht, who doesn’t lack other options to throw to, but this is a game where I could see him leaning on Hansen more than he has yet this season.

Should Hansen see an increased workload, guys like Charles Perkins and Hammond Russell become even more important, needing to close holes. But Posa and Catalano are Wisconsin’s game wreckers and should Hansen find the second level with any consistency, if they can limit him to a few yards-per-carry, as opposed to him getting into open space where he can make guys miss, it will go a long way.

Wisconsin linebacker Mason Posa (8) intercepts a pass during the second quarter of their game against Eastern Michigan Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Sean West versus Zay Robinson

As a returner, Robinson has been more than serviceable for the Nittany Lions. On 13 punt returns this season, he’s averaged about 13 yards-per-return, with a season-long return of 38 yards. He hasn’t scored in the return game, but I do think the chess match between him and West could prove valuable. 

Whether Badger fans like it or not, I think points are going to be difficult to come by for this offense. Hopefully I’m wrong, but I’m not ready to deem this an elite offense after one good showing versus Eastern Michigan. With that said, Wisconsin needs to win the field position battle to have a chance in my eyes. 

Robinson has been good, but this is more a testament to Sean West needing to have a good day when he’s given opportunities to punt. After his disastrous showing against Minnesota to close 2025, he responded in dramatic fashion versus Notre Dame, including the best punt I’ve ever seen.

He doesn’t need to put every kick inside the 5-yard line, but forcing Penn State to play a long field, without its most explosive player would go a long way in the Badgers’ quest for an upset. 

Robinson doesn’t necessarily need to be avoided entirely in the return game, but he’s a playmaker no doubt, so long punts with good hang time to allow the coverage team to get downfield will be necessary. West isn’t going to win the game for Wisconsin, but playing with short fields offensively and making Penn State have long drives would be a huge factor.