Predicting Where Wisconsin Football Will Improve, Regress in 2026

Ahead of an absolutely critical 2026 season, lots of arrows appear to be pointing upwards for Wisconsin football.

Between a significantly easier schedule, a dazzling dual-threat quarterback and a financially reinforced roster, there's plenty to get excited about in Madison.

But where specifically can we expect to see tangible improvement this fall, and where might the Badgers regress in 2026 despite what looks like a significantly stronger team?

Below, Badgers On SI takes a look at concrete, empirical areas where we expect Wisconsin to take steps forward or backward in 2026:

136.4 passing yards per game — Improve

Last fall, the Badgers trotted out the worst passing offense in the Power Four and the fifth-worst passing offense in the entire nation by yards-per-game. Three of the four teams that threw for fewer yards per game run a triple option offense.

New starting quarterback Colton Joseph can be a little erratic as a passer, and adjusting to a drop-back passing game this offseason took some time. But he's still the most exciting quarterback Wisconsin has had in years, and though this will remain a run-heavy offense, Joseph should certainly help the Badgers surpass their abysmal passing yards average from 2025.

32.0 sacks — Regress

Wisconsin's defense took a big step forward last season in regards to rushing the passer, going from just 17 sacks in 2024 to 32 last fall, tied for 12th-most in the nation. However, with the graduation of both Mason Reiger and Darryl Peterson, the Badgers' top two edge rushers, I see the quarterback pressure falling off a bit in Madison.

Wisconsin's outside linebacker room is essentially all projection right now. Can Sebastian Cheeks take a big leap? Can Justus Boone and Tyreese Fearbry provide some juice off the edge? Can Nick Clayton come into his own as a sophomore? All of those things are certainly possible, but given just how much projection is involved with Wisconsin's edge defenders as the moment, it's reasonable to expect a drop-off in sacks.

32% offensive third down conversion rate — Improve

Wisconsin was one of the worst teams in the country at staying on the field last fall, ranking No. 124 nationally in third down conversion rate. It was the third-worst Power Four team in that regard as well, ahead of only South Carolina and West Virginia.

I expect the Badgers to be able to stay on schedule more this season, for a few reasons. The big one that comes to mind is the legs of Joseph and his ability to turn broken plays into four, five, and six yard gains — or much, much more. The dual threat's legs have the potential to be a great equalizer in Madison, and I also expect the ground game to be improved, leading to more success on early downs.

3.3 yards per carry — Improve

Former Iowa State Cyclones' running back Abu Sama III . | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Again, Joseph's legs are a big reason why I expect this number to improve. Even when he doesn't tuck and run with the ball, the threat of him doing so should open up the rest of the Badgers' ground game, which looks to feature a stronger, more experienced offensive line and has a handful of capable tailbacks, namely Abu Sama and Darrion Dupree.

3.3 yards per carry for a Wisconsin offense is insulting to everything this program was built upon. I expect Joseph, Sama, Jeff Grimes and Eric Mateos to turn that around in 2026.

15th-ranked rushing defense nationally — Regress

The Badgers quietly had one of the nation's best overall rushing defenses last season. It didn't always show up, like when Iowa ran for 210 yards last fall in Camp Randall. Still, this was generally a stout rushing defense that mostly didn't allow itself to be bullied like in previous seasons under Luke Fickell.

Inside backer duo Mason Posa and Cooper Catalano are both excellent against the run, but I fear we'll see regression from the defensive line this season. The Badgers attempted to replicate their formula of large, experienced linemen via the portal to populate their defensive trenches once again this fall, but I'm not convinced that group is quite on the same level as the 2025 defensive line. I still expect this to be a strong run defense, but top-15 nationally might not be attainable again.

Six turnovers gained — Improve

This is an easy one; the Badgers quite literally have nowhere to go but up in this category. They were dead last in the country in 2025 with only six turnovers produced on defense (five interceptions and one fumble recovery).

That has to be a huge area of emphasis heading into the 2026 campaign. Turnover luck can be random and come in bunches, but it's hard to see Wisconsin being the cellar dweller in this category for two straight seasons.

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