Ohio State vs. Iowa Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 5

Ohio State is favored against Iowa in Week 5 of the college football season. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Iowa Hawkeyes established themselves as Big Ten contenders in Week 4 when they beat the Michigan Wolverines on a walk-off touchdown, giving them a taste of their own medicine from their win against Western Michigan earlier in the season.

The bad news for Iowa is that the Hawkeyes will get no time to relax. They'll now welcome the No. 5-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes in Week 5 action. Ohio State is fresh off an impressive 42-19 win against Illinois.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this Big Ten showdown.

Ohio State vs. Iowa Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Spread

• Ohio State -14 (-112)
• Iowa +14 (-105)

Moneyline

• Ohio State -625
• Iowa +475

Total

• OVER 45.5 (-110)
• UNDER 45.5 (-110)

Ohio State vs. Iowa How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, October 3
• Time: 3:30 pm ET
• Venue: Kinnick Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Ohio State record: 3-1
• Iowa record: 4-0

Ohio State vs. Iowa Betting Trends

• These two teams are 3-3-1 against the spread in the last seven meetings between them
• The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these two teams
• Ohio State is 6-4 against the spread in its last 10 games
• The UNDER is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams
• Iowa is 8-2 against the spread in its last 10 games
• The UNDER is 6-4 in its last 10 games

Ohio State vs. Iowa Key Player to Watch

• Jeremiah Smith, WR - Ohio State Buckeyes

If Iowa wants to hang in this game whatsoever, the Hawkeyes need to find a way to slow down Jeremiah Smith. The likely Heisman Trophy finalist has already racked up 33 receptions for 617 yards and seven touchdowns. Those numbers dwarf the numbers of any other receiver on this team and from most receivers in the country. He enters this week as the betting favorite to win the Heisman at +280.

Ohio State vs. Iowa Prediction and Best Bet

As I wrote above, the key to hanging with Ohio State is stopping Jeremiah Smith. While Iowa is good at stopping the run, unfortunately, they have struggled to stop the pass. They rank 66th in opponent EPA per dropback, 38th in opponent dropback success rate, and 68th in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 7.1 yards per throw.

Despite the early-season loss to Texas, Ohio State is still one of the best teams in the nation, ranking fourth in the country in net adjusted EPA per play and fifth in net success rate. They are a significant step above the Hawkeyes, and I think they'll prove that this week.

Pick: Ohio State -14 (-112) via BetMGM

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