Where Wisconsin Stands Among Big Ten CFP Contenders According to On3

The national outlet remains tepid on the Badgers' chances for 2026.

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza is sacked by Wisconsin Badgers linebacker Cooper Catalano. | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Wisconsin football has yet to sniff relevance in the expanded, 12-team era of the College Football Playoff.

The Badgers have very clearly trended downwards under the direction of head coach Luke Fickell, but a renewed monetary investment in the program resulting in a promising haul of transfers and some exciting young, rising star position coaches has Wisconsin football primed for a bounce-back year in 2026.

Is that enough to make the Badgers a College Football Playoff contender in the Big Ten? On3's Ari Wasserman would wholeheartedly disagree.

Now, as we sit here in late June, any national pundit worth their salt would probably have a tough time asserting that Wisconsin is a CFP contender without some serious eyebrow-raising. And for good reason — the Badgers have barely had a pulse under Fickell. To go from the disaster of 2025, a 4-8 season and the program's worst campaign since 1990, to suddenly earning a CFP bid would be one of the more remarkable turnarounds we've seen in the sport recently.

What's more, we already know Wasserman isnt' high on Wisconsin ahead of the 2026 season, having ranked the Badgers a lowly 14th in the conference in his updated power rankings.

When tiering playoff teams in the Big Ten, the national writer lists the following teams as "Best Bets" (Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State), "Serious Contenders" (USC, Penn State, Washington, Michigan) and one "Dark Horse" (Iowa). That leaves Wisconsion firmly on the outside looking in. Again, not much of a surprise, especially considering On3's consistently lukewarm opinion of the Badgers this offseason.

What would it take for Wisconsin to make the CFP?

Wisconsin huddles as the Oregon Ducks host the Wisconsin Badgers. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Considering the fact that right now, I'm feeling about seven (just maybe eight) wins for this team, this is almost a ridiculous notion to entertain.

But teams come out of nowehere in college football all the time, and the Badgers certainly have a chance to make noise this season. But a lot of things have to go right.

Let's start with the starting quarterback (Colton Joseph) staying healthy. That comes above all else, especially with how snakebitten Fickell has been at signal-caller.

But otherwise, Wisconsin realistically needs to win 10 games (no team with three regular season losses has ever earned an at-large bid). Considering the opener is against Notre Dame, a team universally expected to be ranked within the top five at the start of the season, the Badgers' work is already cut out for them.

The 2026 campaign isn't one where success should be measured by a playoff appearance — that's just not a realistic goal for where this team is at. Is it entirely out of the realm of possibility? I wouldn't say that, but again, so many things have to go Wisconsin's way. If the Badgers upset Notre Dame at Lambeau Field, then we can talk.