Why Luke Fickell Might Need to Pull Off an Upset to Keep His Job

One of the biggest talking points about Wisconsin football ahead of the 2026 season was the vastly easier schedule facing the Badgers ahead of a make-or-break year for head coach Luke Fickell and his staff.

After facing what, by many metrics, was considered the hardest schedule in the nation in 2025, Wisconsin's 2026 slate was initially dubbed the easiest in the Big Ten.

Upon first glance, that checks out. The Badgers avoid Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon and Michigan. Meanwhile, they get to face projected conference bottom-feeders such as Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland, and Michigan State.

But looking a little closer, Wisconsin's schedule actually doesn't shake out in the most advantageous way for Fickell, a man whose seat is scalding hot to the touch at this point.

Yes, the Badgers face the four aforementioned down-and-out programs against whom as we sit here today, Wisconsin would be favorites. That of course bodes will for the Badgers reaching that six, seven or eight-win territory.

There's only one problem: the majority of those games are at the tail end of the schedule. Wisconsin's second Big Ten opponent is Michigan State, but it doesn't get to face Rutgers, Maryland and Purdue until a three-week stretch in November.

Conversely, the Badgers' Big Ten slate begins with a much more challenging set of opponents. Wisconsin opens up conference play on the road in Happy Valley against the current No. 14 Penn State Nittany Lions. Having taken down Marshall and Temple, and with Buffalo on tap in Week 3, Penn State is almost guaranteed to be 3-0 heading into the Big Ten opener.

Wisconsin gets a bit of a breather with Michigan State the following week, but then after a bye, the Badgers face UCLA on the road, host USC and then travel to Iowa to play the Hawkeyes on Halloween night.

UCLA is off to a tremendous start under new head coach Bob Chesney, USC currently sits at No. 12 in the country, and we all know how much trouble Iowa has given Wisconsin in recent years (the combined score of the previous two meetings is 79-10, Hawkeyes).

"Easy" schedule, brutal timing

Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell leads the team onto the field for warmups. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Translation? Wisconsin could easily lose each of those games. That's of course a worst-case scenario, but if that unfolds, and assuming for the sake of argument the Badgers beat Michigan State, That puts Wisconsin at 3-5 heading into November.

That would put an immense amount of pressure on the Badgers to win three of four down the stretch in November just to reach bowl eligibility. Slip up along the way, and the postseason slips away yet again.

That's why I believe there's a chance Fickell needs to upset one of either Penn State, USC or Iowa in order to keep his job. If he drops all of those games, he could still finish with a 7-5 record if he takes advantage of the weak November schedule. But if, say, he drops three straight to the two Los Angeles schools and Iowa for a fourth year in a row, Badgers fans will be out for blood.

It'll be fascinating to see just how long Fickell's leash is under new athletic director Shawn Eichorst. Does he too understand the pitfalls of the front-loaded schedule? Does that even matter to him when evaluating the coach's performance?

Wisconsin has a light November, which constitutes much of its "easy" schedule. But will Fickell make it there?

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