Forde-Yard Dash: Six Embattled College Football Coaches on the Hot Seat Already

Mike Norvell’s enormous buyout at Florida State is no longer enough to keep his job feel safe, while others enter Week 3 with plenty at stake.

Florida State coach Mike Norvell is on the hot seat, especially after his athletic director was fired on Monday. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where the buy-game blowouts of FCS opponents by power-conference teams have gotten out of hand. First Quarter: ‘O’ No. Second Quarter: We Have a New Leader in the Conference Power Ratings. Third Quarter: Bitter Divorces, Bad Feelings.

Fourth Quarter: Yes, Embattled Coaches Should Already Be Nervous 

The preseason hot seat lists weren’t very long this August, largely because so many jobs turned over last year (34 out of 138, to be precise). But the coaches who were on the list remain on it so far, with perhaps a couple additions. Some have big opportunities this weekend—either to improve their standing or perhaps bury themselves. A brief breakdown: 

Mike Norvell (31), Florida State

His boss was fired Monday, which certainly does not lend an air of stability to the situation. Whether that definitively cuts the legs out from under Norvell remains to be seen, but Florida State has definitely decided it doesn’t want Michael Alford involved again this year in the decision about Norvell’s future or who might replace him. 

The only thing that saved Norvell last year was the size of his buyout, which remains massive (more than $45 million at the end of this season). When Norvell was a prime name in the Alabama search after Nick Saban retired, Florida State extended him at great cost, and it has become more expensive with each passing defeat. 

The scales are tipping from Norvell being too expensive to buy out to too expensive to keep. Since being snubbed for the College Football Playoff in 2023, the Seminoles have gone 8–19, a disastrous 3–14 in the ACC. That includes an underwhelming home performance in a loss to SMU on Labor Day. At a time when FSU is trying to position itself for a potential next round of conference realignment, being lousy at football really isn’t an option. 

Next up for Florida State: at Alabama on Saturday, which could be grim. After playing Central Arkansas, the Noles go back into ACC play against three straight currently ranked opponents: No. 25 Virginia, No. 23 Louisville and No. 5 Miami. If all those games go poorly, there is an ominously timed open date that follows.

Luke Fickell (32), Wisconsin

The Badgers were competitive most of the opener against Notre Dame, then followed that with a workmanlike, 36–9 victory over FCS opponent Western Illinois. The weirdest thing about Fickell’s defense is that it has become completely incapable of producing takeaways—Wisconsin was tied for last nationally last year with just six, and does not have one yet this season. Contrast that with Fickell’s College Football Playoff team at Cincinnati in 2021, which led the nation with 34 takeaways, and something has been lost in translation. (Maybe too much defensive staff.)

Next up for Wisconsin: vs. Eastern Michigan on Saturday, which should be (better be) a low-stress affair. Big Ten business begins at Penn State on Sept. 26. Fickell is fortunate not to face Indiana or Ohio State this season.

Dave Aranda (33), Baylor

He could have really helped himself with a neutral-field victory over Auburn in the opener, but the Bears couldn’t convert a do-or-die two-point conversion with nine seconds left. Baylor could use more running production than the 103 yards it had against the Tigers.

Next up for Baylor: vs. Louisiana Tech, which gave LSU a battle for a while, on Saturday. Aranda obviously needs to win that one before getting into Big 12 play Sept. 26 against Colorado. Aranda is six games under .500 in conference over the last four seasons, which is not sustainable.

Baylor coach Dave Aranda needs to beat Louisiana Tech this week ahead of Big 12 play opening. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Dave Doeren (34), North Carolina State

His uncomfortably comfortable status (or is it comfortably uncomfortable?) after 13 seasons in Raleigh took a sharp turn for the worse in an opening beatdown from Virginia. Murdering Richmond on Saturday doesn’t change much. There appear to be several toss-up games on the schedule that could decide where this thing lands.

Next up for NC State: at Vanderbilt on Saturday. Big opportunity against a Commodores team that looks vulnerable through two games into life after Diego Pavia.

Greg Schiano (35), Rutgers

No power-conference team started out worse than the Scarlet Knights, who are 0–2 against the state of Massachusetts: rocked by previously hopeless UMass and then lost to Boston College. Schiano understandably switched quarterbacks after the opening debacle to AJ Surace, but he responded by throwing four interceptions against the Eagles. Rutgers has thrown seven picks in 65 pass attempts on the season, an incomprehensible 10.8% interception rate.

Next up for Rutgers: hosting No. 12 USC on Saturday. This is a huge turnaround opportunity. It also could be a horrible beatdown.

Bill Belichick (36), North Carolina

The problem here is not the football, not with the Tar Heels 2–0 and riding a string of seven straight quarters without giving up a touchdown. The problem is everything off the field, where general manager Michael Lombardi has resigned after being put on administrative leave and defensive coordinator Steve Belichick (BIll’s son) has been on medical leave. A report that independent investigators looking into the program’s culture were asking questions about drug use and impermissible sex could be a looming scandal that renders on-field results moot.

Next up for North Carolina: at Clemson on Saturday. The Tigers are 3.5-point favorites, but perhaps shouldn’t be.

Stat Of The Week 

All the talk in the opening week of the NFL season has been the scoring explosion, most notably Chicago and Carolina combining for a freakish 96 points. The college game certainly hasn’t seen anything approaching that yet among comparable opponents. In 26 meetings of power-conference teams, only one has had a total of more than 70 points. That was Mississippi-Louisville (37), which was 79.

Eight power-conference teams have scored more than 40 against a Power 4 opponent. Five are from the SEC (Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Alabama, Tennessee and LSU), one from the Big Ten (UCLA), one from the ACC (Miami) and Notre Dame.

Six games had a total under 30: North Carolina–TCU, Iowa–Iowa State (naturally), Pittsburgh-UCF, Colorado–Georgia Tech, Auburn-Baylor and Michigan-Oklahoma.

Coach Who Earned His Comp Car This Week 

Tim Polasek (38), North Dakota State

He and the Bison are 3–0 in their debut FBS season, highlighted by their first Mountain West Conference win—on the road at Air Force. North Dakota State led by 22 in Falcon Stadium going into the fourth quarter and held on to win, 38–32.

Coach Who Should Take the Bus to Work 

Bret Bielema (39), Illinois

After talking a lot of noise about the SEC during the summer, Bielema is 0–1 against the ACC after a home loss to Duke—and it was a battle for most of the opener against UAB of the American Conference. The Illini are giving up 182 yards per game on the ground, which is last in the Big Ten.

Point After 

When thirsty and in need of football viewing on Sixth Street in Austin, The Dash recommends a visit to Little Woodrow’s (40). They’ll get your game on TV for you and serve you a fine variety of beer. Try a Twisted X McConauhaze IPA (named after you know who) and thank The Dash later.

---

PODCAST: Listen to Sports Illustrated’s college sports podcast, Others Receiving Votes, hosted by Pat Forde, on Apple and Spotify. Watch the show on SI’s college YouTube channel or on SI TV.