Way Too Early Wisconsin Football Opponent Preview: Iowa

In one of, if not the most important game of Wisconsin’s 2026 season, it will pay a visit to Kinnick Stadium for the battle for the Heartland Trophy on Halloween.

With this game coming the week after USC visits Madison, the two-week stretch could become make-or-break territory for Luke Fickell. I don’t think he necessarily needs to go 2-0 to keep his job, but it can’t be 0-2 with two uncompetitive losses.

Winning against Iowa is never easy, and Fickell is yet to do so, which makes it absolutely critical that even if the Badgers don’t leave Iowa City with a victory, they put forth a respectable effort.

How 2025 ended

For those familiar with Iowa football, I’d say 2025 was about as Iowa as it gets. Kirk Ferentz’s group handled every team that it should handle en route to an 8-4 regular season record, with the losses coming at Iowa State and USC, and at home versus Oregon and Indiana.

To close the season and ring in the new year, the Hawkeyes downed Vanderbilt in the ReliaQuest Bowl.

Obviously for Wisconsin, the most notable result was Iowa’s 37-0 victory in Camp Randall in early October. It was about as bad as any Badger fan could’ve drawn it up, and for Wisconsin, that should be the only result in 2025 for Iowa they look at at all, because it should provide enough motivation for years to come in this rivalry.

Key losses

In Fickell’s first meeting with Iowa, Tory Taylor dominated the game on special teams, pinning Wisconsin deep nearly every possession. When this rivalry is competitive, special teams can decide the game, which is why the loss of Kaden Wetjen could be particularly notable in this matchup.

While he was used in a variety of offensive packages, scoring a touchdown as a receiver and two as a carrier in 2025, his presence in the return game will be missed deeply by Iowa. Last season alone he returned three punts for touchdowns, averaging 26.8 yards per return.

He also tacked on a kick-return touchdown and 476 yards in the kick-return game and was named a consensus All-American en route to being drafted in the fourth round of the NFL Draft.

In his three-season Iowa career, he totaled 1,538 kick-return yards and 954 punt-return yards with six total return touchdowns. Iowa will never not be exceptional on special teams, but for the first time in Fickell’s tenure, Wetjen won’t be back returning kicks, which I’m sure is a welcomed sight for the staff.

The other staple characteristic of Iowa football is being dominant on the offensive line and controlling the line of scrimmage. As it does every year, I’m sure the offensive line will be reloaded and one of the league’s best, but it won’t be without replacing multiple key names from 2025.

With Logan Jones being drafted in the second round, Gennings Dunker in the third and Beau Stephens in the fifth, Ferentz will have some work to do patching holes in what was a quality line in 2025.

Again, I have no doubt that the Hawkeyes will have one of the better offensive lines in the Big Ten, but it’s worth noting that there may be some moving pieces or inexperienced faces up front.

Kaden Wetjen runs the ball. — Iowa’s Kaden Wetjen (21) runs with the ball against Troy Saturday, Sept. 14, 2024 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Key additions

What often holds Iowa back from truly competing with the best of the best is the lack of explosiveness offensively. Tony Diaz, a transfer wide receiver from UTRGV is a guy who could help stretch defenses as Iowa once again looks to be stronger in the passing game.

In his freshman season, he had 67 catches for 881 yards and 11 touchdowns. It would not be at all surprising if he slots in immediately and has an impact in the Hawkeyes’ receiving room, and if they can get any sort of big game from a receiver in addition to their run game and defense, they’re extremely tough to beat.

Defense is the identity of every Iowa team, and a guy on that side of the ball who I think could have a big impact is safety Tyler Brown, who transferred from James Madison. He could very likely slot into the hole left by the departure of Xavier Nwankpa.

In 2025 at James Madison, he recorded 80 total tackles, five tackles for loss including a sack, an interception and six pass breakups. His ability to be a do-it-all safety could prove valuable for a defense in need of Nwankpa’s replacement, and defensive playmakers always have a chance to make game-deciding plays in rivalry games.

2026 outlook

It feels like the season outlook for Iowa is essentially the same every season. However, I do believe that if Iowa is ever going to make the College Football Playoff, the schedule is favorable to do so in 2026.

In order to do so, Iowa would have to take care of the teams it has consistently beat in recent years, including Wisconsin. Given the style of football the Hawkeyes play, that is by no means a given, but hypothetically speaking, if they were to win all of those games as they did in 2025, a playoff berth would come down to a three-game stretch.

In consecutive weeks, Iowa visits Michigan, hosts Ohio State and visits Washington. Even with a 1-2 record in that stretch, a 10-2 finish would be completely realistic, and that could very well earn a spot in the playoff.

Again, it’s not a guarantee that Iowa takes care of business in every other game, but it wouldn’t surprise me, so it will be interesting to see if those three games could become a stretch that is the difference between a playoff berth or some other bowl game.

Prediction

Iowa 20, Wisconsin 13

I don’t think this game will get as ugly as either of the last two meetings between these programs. But given those results, I’m not going to say Wisconsin turns the tide completely and wins the game outright.

Iowa isn’t a team that plays a style which results in massive blowouts, yet that’s how the last two matchups have gone. Ideally, in this matchup, with a healthy starting quarterback, the Wisconsin offense will be able to muster a few scoring drives, or at least keep the defense off the field for extended periods.

If the offense can do so, you never know, 13 points is enough to beat Iowa sometimes. What the Hawkeyes won’t do though, is beat themselves, meaning Wisconsin would have to execute in all three phases at a high level to win on the road.

This is another game like USC where I think Wisconsin could win. I’m optimistic about the roster, but until there is tangible improvement and I see the roster in a game-setting, I’m not going to pick a win here.

I’d have to imagine a 20-13 game, even if in a loss, would be welcomed with open arms by Badger fans who are desperate to see their team in good old-fashioned slugfests with their rival.

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