Wisconsin Football in Bottom Half of Big Ten in Key 2026 Metric

Bill Connelly released his 2026 returning production rankings, and Wisconsin falls into the bottom half of the Big Ten.

Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell and the Wisconsin defensive huddle up. | Ross Harried-Imagn Images

There's no shortage of metrics and numbers to evaluate college football programs across America ahead of the 2026 season. And until these teams take the field in late August, we have no way of assessing how accurate those barometers are.

Still, a staple measure for evaluating college football teams in the offseason, Bill Connellly of ESPN's Returning Production, can be quite telling.

Connelly just released the 2026 iteration of his oft-referenced statistic, and there's plenty to dive into. The Big Ten has a staggering eight teams inside the top 20 in terms of returning production percentage. Wisconsin, meanwhile, checks in at 10th in the Big Ten and 35th nationally.

Here's the complete Big Ten rankings:

Team (National Rank)	Returning Production Percentage	Offensive Returning Production (National Rank)	Defensive Returning Production (National Rank)
1. Maryland (2)	71%	68% (17)	74% (4)
2. Nebraska (3)	69%	69% (14)	69% (7)
3. Minnesota (7)	68%	71% (10)	65% (12)
4. UCLA (9)	67%	73% (5)	61% (29)
5. Oregon (11)	66%	65% (26)	66% (11)
6. USC (13)	65%	67% (22)	64% (16)
7. Washington (15)	65%	69% (13)	61% (27)
8. Michigan (20)	63%	72% (6)	55% (55)
9. Ohio State (31)	60%	71% (8)	50% (78)
10. Wisconsin (35)	59%	61% (45)	57% (56)
11. Purdue (40)	58%	61% (40)	55% (58)
12. Northwestern (44)	57%	57% (59)	58% (43)
13. Indiana (52)	56%	54% (69)	58% (39)
14. Penn State (67)	52%	50% (78)	53% (67)
15. Illinois (75)	50%	52% (74)	47% (83)
16. Rutgers (92)	47%	49% (82)	46% (88)
17. Michigan State (97)	46%	48% (88)	45% (91)
18. Iowa (104)	44%	48% (84)	40% (105)

Now, there's a few things to keep in mind about returning production. The algorithm is purely a representation of returning (and incoming via transfers) production; it doesn't account for if that production is necessarily good. (i.e., a poor player could've still played hundreds of snaps). Connelly explains it all in his article, but certain stats are weighed differently, with percentage of returning snaps as the biggest factor.

Thus, this list shouldn't be used to determine which teams will be good and which teams will be bad next fall. Obviously, no one thinks Maryland — coming off a 4-8 season — is going to run to Big Ten. Still, the Terps check in as the team that returns the second-most production in the nation.

With that being said, lets jump into a few observations:

Wisconsin plays four of the top-15 teams in returning production

Wisconsin will play some of the teams with the most returning production in 2026, including UCLA. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Badgers are slated to play some experienced teams next fall.

Wisconsin will play Maryland, Minnesota, UCLA and USC, all of whom rank in the top-15 in terms of overall returning production. The Bruins also sport the fifth-most returning production on offense, while the Terps return the fourth-most defensive production in the nation.

The Badgers are middle of the pack

35th overall in the nation is solid, but Wisconsin is 10th in the Big Ten, placing the Badgers into the lower half of the conference.

Again, this metric doesn't correlate directly to wins and losses. But it's an early indication that Wisconsin needs new faces to step up, especially on defense, where it returns just the 56th-most production nationally.

Of course, new players being counted on isn't exactly a bad thing, especially after a rock-bottom 4-8 season in 2025. This team needed a makeover, and so it would be rather alarming if Wisconsin ranked among the top of the list nationally.

Roster turnover increasing

This is true for the entire sport, as programs increasingly rely on the transfer portal to fill holes and place less emphasis on high school recruiting and development. Wisconsin is a good example of this trend, as the Badgers continue to flip more and more of their roster year after year.

Ahead of the 2025 season, Wisconsin checked in at 25th nationally, bringing back 64 percent of its production. Flash forward one year, and the Badgers are down to 35th (59 percent).

Again, major changes needed to be made after the disaster of the 2025 season. But as college football changes rapidly, the Badgers have hopped on the trend of increased roster turnover.