Miami vs. Purdue Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for NCAA Tournament 2nd Round

The No. 7 Miami Hurricanes picked up a convincing win over No. 10 Missouri in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, and now they’ll face a tougher test in the second round on Sunday against the Purdue Boilermakers.

Braden Smith and Purdue scored 104 points in the first round in a 33-point win over Queens, building on a strong showing in the Big Ten Tournament, where they beat Michigan to capture the title.

The Boilermakers are favored in this second-round matchup, and they’ve moved up from +1900 to +1700 to win the national title.

Purdue has the No. 1 adjusted offensive efficiency in the country, per KenPom, but Miami has been solid on both sides of the ball, ranking in the top 40 in both KenPom’s offensive and defensive rating.

Who has the edge in this second-round clash?

Let’s take a look at the odds from the best betting sites, a prop bet and my prediction for Sunday’s early matchup.

Miami vs. Purdue Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Miami +7.5 (-110)
Purdue -7.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Miami: +270
Purdue: -340

Total

147.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Miami vs. Purdue How to Watch

Date: Sunday, March 22
Time: 12:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Enterprise Center
How to Watch (TV): CBS
Miami record: 26-8
Purdue record: 28-8

Miami vs. Purdue Best Prop Bet

Braden Smith OVER 14.5 Points (-108)

This season, Smith is averaging 14.3 points per game while shooting over 45 percent from the field and over 37 percent from 3. While the star guard isn’t known for his scoring – he’s one of the best passers in the country and broke the NCAA’s all-time assists record on Friday – he had a huge game in the first round.

Smith shot 10-for-15 from the field and finished with 26 points, and he also had 14 points in the Big Ten title game against Michigan.

With the season on the line every night for Purdue, I wouldn't be shocked if Smith is a little more aggressive looking for his shot in the NCAA Tournament. This is also a great matchup for him against a Miami team that is 267th in the country in opponent 3-point percentage.

Miami vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams can really score the ball – Purdue had over 100 points in the first round while Miami dropped 80 – and I think this total is a little low on Sunday afternoon.

The OVER is 20-12-1 in Miami’s games this season and 19-17 in Purdue’s games this season, and Bart Torvik’s advanced analytics project this game to finish with 154 combined points. So, we may be getting a little bit of a discount on this total with it set at 147.5.

Purdue ranks No. 1 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, No. 12 in 3-point percentage and 10th in effective field goal percentage. However, it is outside the top-200 in opponent effective field goal percentage, which is a good sign for the Hurricanes.

Miami is 29th in effective field goal percentage this season, and it’s inside the top-20 in the land in offensive rebound rate. The Hurricanes don’t shoot the 3-ball as well as Purdue, but they struggle to defend the 3, which should lead to this being a higher-scoring affair.

I like Purdue to win this game, but I’d much rather take the OVER than lay this many points with the Boilermakers. Purdue is just 16-20 against the spread in the 2025-26 season.

Pick: OVER 147.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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