Mario Barrios vs Ryan Garcia Odds and Prediction

Still seeking his first win as the WBC welterweight champion, Mario Barrios (29-2-2, 18 KOs) returns to defend his belt against Ryan Garcia (24-2 with one no-contest, 20 KOs) on Saturday.

Barrios, 30, returns for the first time since his draw with Manny Pacquiao in July 2025. The draw was his second consecutive, following a split draw with Abel Ramos, leaving the champion winless since May 2024, when he defeated Fabian Maidana.

Garcia, 27, is on an even longer drought, with his last official victory coming against Oscar Duarte in December 2023. The popular Garcia is coming off a disappointing loss to Rolando 'Rolly' Romero in May 2025, yet finds himself in another world title fight.

Barrios vs Garcia | IMAGO / Pacific Press Agency

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Mario Barrios vs. Ryan Garcia moneyline odds

Mario Barrios: +195

Ryan Garcia: -250

Over 10.5 Rounds: -135

Under 10.5 Rounds: +100

Mario Barrios vs. Ryan Garcia method of victory

Mario Barrios by decision: +320

Mario Barrios by KO/TKO: +750

Ryan Garcia by decision: +240

Ryan Garcia by KO/TKO: +120

Mario Barrios vs. Ryan Garcia prediction

Despite entering the fight as the champion riding a five-fight unbeaten streak, Barrios finds himself as the underdog against Garcia. The line has as much to do with Garcia's popularity as it does with Barrios' uninspiring title reign, full of lackluster performances against lesser opponents.

Garcia has just one official victory in the last three years, but fans still see the explosive potential in him. Garcia's stock took a hit in his loss to Romero, but he continues to ride the high of his three-knockdown performance against Devin Haney in April 2024.

Controversy aside, Garcia's power and speed were on full display in his performance against Haney. He lacks the technical skills of a world-class champion, but nothing else matters if his lightning-quick left hook lands.

MORE: Watch Mario Barrios face Ryan Garcia live on DAZN

Garcia has a clear power advantage, but his loss to Romero showed that his entire game falls apart when the left hook does not land. Barrios has been knocked down four times in his last nine fights, but only one was from a lead hook. The Mexican primarily struggles to defend straight punches, which has been his downfall in recent fights.

Garcia can change everything with one left hook, which can land at any moment, particularly with how lazy some of Barrios' jabs can be. But if there is one person in the world who knows how to shut down that part of his game, it is Joe Goossen, who led Garcia's camp for over a year. Goossen will be in Barrios' corner on Saturday night.

As the taller fighter with more fundamental tools in his bag, Barrios will force Garcia to bring the fight to him. Garcia has had success with that in the past, but he does his best work as a counter-puncher.

Until he proves otherwise, Garcia has not shown enough improvement to become a world champion.

Prediction: Mario Barrios (+195)

The Latest Boxing News

Mario Barrios vs Ryan Garcia Preview: Start Time, Fight Card, How to Watch & Live Stream

Dana White and Zuffa Boxing Poach Top Fighter From Eddie Hearn

Anthony Joshua Planning Mid-2026 Return, But Not Against Tyson Fury

Ryan Garcia Pinpoints the Mario Barrios Advantage That Will Also Be His Downfall