Eight college football teams on upset alert in Week 6

Week 6 offers a selection of potential college football upsets. Now, bear in mind, in choosing teams to put on upset alert, we're looking for genuine upsets. If Iowa State wins as +1.5 against Cincinnati, well, that's not surprising. To make our definition of a potential upset, the line much be five points or more. So goodbye, Miami/Florida State from our conversation. Here are eight Week 6 teams that could well get upset.

Illinois (-9.5 at Purdue)

Last week, the Illini looked phenomenal in taking down USC. But the week before, they were absolutely shredded by Indiana. No, Purdue is not Indiana. But under Barry Odom, the defense will improve on last week's performance. Ryan Browne has some gunslinger skills, even if he occasionally finds the wrong team. Illinois has allowed 267 and 364 yards passing in the last two weeks. There's some potential here for Purdue at home to hang around this game.

Pittsburgh (-6.5 vs. Boston College)

BC has been unlucky with a 1-3 start with the three losses coming by a combined 16 points. QB Dylan Lonergan has thrown for over 300 yards in a pair of road games. Pittsburgh gave away a 17-0 lead last week against Louisville, and while Eli Holstein makes plays, he's thrown at least one pick in each game this year. Turnovers could do in the Panthers at home.

Baylor (-5.5 vs. Kansas State)

That whole bad luck issue is Kansas State. Three losses, total of 12 point margin. But last week, they won by two scores against Central Florida. QB Avery Johnson has been up and down, but 75 rushing yards last week was a good sign. Baylor's defense is allowing 28.8 points per game, and the Bears had three of their four interceptions on the year against an FCS opponent. K-State could pull this one off.

Virginia Tech (-6.5 vs. Wake Forest)

It seems vaguely iffy to pick a team that fired its coach as a favorite, but here we are. Wake lost to Georgia Tech by a point last week and Demond Claiborne is one of the best running backs nobody's heard of (366 yards, 6 TDs in four games). Tech edged out NC State, but with a passing game hitting 5.2 yards per pass (last week's total), they look very upset-worthy.

Louisville (-6.5 vs. Virginia)

The Cardinals stumbled back from a 17-0 deficit last week and are 4-0. Louisville ran for 1.56 yards per carry in that comeback win over Pittsburgh. On the other hand, Virginia is averaging 243 yards per game on the ground. When in doubt, trust the team that has committed to running the football well, even on the road.

Washington (-6.5 at Maryland)

Yes, Maryland is 4-0 and yes, they haven't really played anybody. But their defense is allowing just 10.8 points per game. They have held opponents to 2.49 yards per carry and have managed eight interceptions in their first four games. Washington is explosive, but even with QB Demond Williams hitting over 80% of his passes for just under eight yards per throw, they were stuck in mud against Ohio State. Why? 2.03 yards per carry. No, Maryland's defense isn't Ohio State's. But it can gum this game up enough to give the Terps a shot at the home upset.

Nebraska (-11.5 vs. Michigan State)

That's a big spread for a Nebraska team that has won a game by three and lost a game by three against power conference opponents so far this year. Dylan Raiola has padded his numbers against weak opponents, but has been so-so against good competition. Now, if State good competition? Well, it's better than year ago. Aidan Chiles threw for three scores and 10.1 yards per pass against USC. MSU has rushed for at least 112 yards in each game, and if they can replicate that, they have a shot at an upset here.

Kansas (-5.5 at UCF)

Yes, we went with UCF last week for an upset and they didn't deliver. But here we are again. Last week, the Golden Knights got cooked for 266 yards on the ground by Kansas State in their first loss of the year. Kansas is riding a big game from Jalon Daniels and will lean in on the pass. UCF is holding opponents to 5.2 yards per pass attempt and has five picks against three touchdowns allowed through the air on the season. Maybe UCF has their upset game worked out for Week 6.

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