College Football Week 7 Best Bets (Back Oklahoma in Red River Rivalry vs. Texas)

Iain MacMillan | Oct 9, 2025

Oklahoma is a slight underdog to Texas in college football Week 7 action. / NATE BILLINGS/FOR THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

We have a jam-packed weekend of college football action ahead of us, including some rivalry matchups and a few games where we'll find out which teams are contenders and which are pretenders.

If you want some bets for this week's action, you've come to the right place. Let's dive into my top three plays for Week 7.

CFB Week 7 Best Bets

• Oklahoma +1.5 (-115) vs. Texas via BetMGM
• Missouri +140 vs. Alabama via Caesars
• Purdue vs. Minnesota OVER 50.5 (-115) via Caesars

Oklahoma vs. Texas Prediction

In this week's edition of the First to Forde, I broke down why I'm backing Oklahoma in this year's Red River Rivalry:

It might be time to accept that Texas just isn't as good as its preseason expectations. They are just 16th in the country in adjusted EPA per play while sporting a success rate of +6.0%. The advanced metrics favor the Sooners, who are fifth in adjusted EPA per play with a Success Rate of +22.4%, which is second in the country behind only Indiana.

Pick: Oklahoma +1.5 (-115)

Alabama vs. Missouri Prediction

Every week, I write an article breaking down my top three upset picks. The Missouri Tigers are one of them in Week 7:

The advanced metrics love this Missouri Tigers team. They enter Week 7 ranking fourth in the country in adjusted EPA per play behind only USC, Oregon, and Ohio State. They also have a Net Success Rate of +19.9% and a Net Yards per Play of +2.27. Alabama ranks below them in all key advanced metrics, including having a Net Yards per Play of just +1.31 with a Net Success Rate of +8%. I'm going to trust the advanced metrics in this one and take Missouri.

Pick: Missouri +140

Purdue vs. Minnesota Prediction

Both the Purdue Boilermakers and Minnesota Golden Gophers are pass-first football teams. Purdue ranks ninth in passing play percentage at 60.07% and Minnesota ranks 32nd at 53.41%. With that in mind, it's important to note Purdue ranks 134th in opponent dropback EPA, and Minnesota has allowed 6.53 yards per pass attempt.

This is a game between two teams with strong passing offenses and weak passing defenses, so let's sit back and root for points in this Big Ten matchup.

Pick: OVER 50.5 (-115)

---

Use our exclusive Caesars Sportsbook promo code SICZR20X to double your winnings on your next 20 bets. Simply deposit $10 or more and place a first-time wager of at least $1, and Caesars will give you 20 100% profit boost tokens.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!