Eight college football teams on upset alert in Week 9

John Mateer and Oklahoma could be on upset alert in a massive Week 9 showdown.
John Mateer and Oklahoma could be on upset alert in a massive Week 9 showdown. | SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

College football's upset season is in high gear. Here's our weekly rundown of eight favorites who might be in serious upset jeopardy. To review the ground rules, we're not listing games with a line smaller than +5. So this isn't the place for, say, LSU/Texas A&M picks-- the line is too close to allow for a genuine upset. But here are eight Week 9 teams that could be subject to genuine upsets.

Texas (-7.5 at Mississippi State)

To say that the Texas team that won 16-13 in overtime last week at Kentucky didn't look good would be a massive understatement. Arch Manning might be the most lost looking QB in recent memory, and an offensively challenged Longhorn team has to go on the road and win at a dogged Mississippi State squad. The talent isn't even, but then, it wasn't a week ago and Texas crawled out of Lexington with a win. Starkville might not be as acommodating.

Oklahoma (-5.5 vs. Ole Miss)

Yes, the Sooners are at home. Yes, the Rebels are coming off a tough loss. But Georgia gutted Ole Miss with an epic passing game. John Mateer's been more of the swashbuckler dual-threat guy than the surgeon who picks secondaries apart. The Sooner defense is legitimate, but Ole Miss's tempo-based attack can put anybody on their heels. This feels like a down-to-the-wire finish that could give Ole Miss a road upset.

Virginia Tech (-6.5 vs. California)

This one looks strange. 5-2 Cal is almost a touchdown underdog at 2-5 Tech. Yes, Cal has a history of squeaking out grinder wins over bad teams. Yes, Tech is probably better than their record. But Cal also beat Minnesota by two scores and has a nice ground weapon in Kendrick Raphael. The Bears will keep it close and could well steal it altogether.

Pittsburgh (-6.5 vs NC State)

Two words as to why State can keep this one tight: Hollywood Smothers. The sophomore back has 739 rushing yards on the season and gains 6.6 yards per carry. QB Mason Heintschel is very talented for the Panthers, but he is a freshman, subject to ups and downs. He didn't play well last week, but an awful Syracuse offense and a ton of penalties rescued him. Might not happen twice in a row.

Nebraska (-7.5 vs. Northwestern)

Raiola
Could Dylan Raiola and Nebraska take a second straight upset loss? | Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

A week ago, we had Nebraska to struggle against a blue-collar Minnesota team that was probably playing better than its record. This week we get to double down: first, on Nebraska to fade, and second on Minnesota to keep it going. Northwestern's defense is fierce and Dylan Raiola didn't react well to getting sacked constantly a week ago. The Wildcats might have to grind it out, but they could do that.

Iowa (-8.5 vs. Minnesota)

Likewise, Minnesota was good enough a week ago, so double down on the Gophers. Darius Taylor looked healthy last week and powered the Gophers to a timely victory. The Minnesota pass rush will likely frustrate a terrible passing team at Iowa. The Hawkeyes can also grind out wins, so this one feels like a 14-10, 17-14 type game and Minnesota might just steal it.

Arizona State (-7.5 vs. Houston)

A week ago, it was Arizona State pulling off the surprise. But Houston is a handful on offense, Arizona State might have had a week of ingesting what Nick Saban used to call "rat poison" (positive press, basically) and another upset could be in the cards, but not to Arizona State's delight.

South Florida (-6.5 at Memphis)

The Bulls are the genuine article and Memphis is coming off a brutal conference defeat. The good news for the Tigers is last week isn't who they really are. Memphis will bounce back strong and with the home field advantage, can certainly hang with USF and maybe even knock them off.

Game odds change periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.


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Joe Cox
JOE COX

Joe is a journalist and writer who covers college and professional sports. He has written or co-written over a dozen sports books, including several regional best sellers. His last book, A Fine Team Man, is about Jackie Robinson and the lives he changed. Joe has been a guest on MLB Network, the Paul Finebaum show and numerous other television and radio shows. He has been inside MLB dugouts, covered bowl games and conference tournaments with Saturday Down South and still loves telling the stories of sports past and present.