Heisman Odds 2026: Malachi Toney Surges Into Top 3 as Jeremiah Smith Slips

Miami now holds two of the top three spots after its 52-23 rout of Pitt, while Ohio State settles its quarterback plan before a trip to USC.

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Miami wide receiver Malachi Toney vaulted into the top three of the Heisman Trophy odds entering Week 9 after a school-record performance, giving the No. 1 Hurricanes the second and third spots behind Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.

Toney shortened from +2700 to +345 after catching 16 passes for 194 yards and three touchdowns against Pitt. Smith is still the favorite at +124 but drifted from -120 during Ohio State’s bye.

1. WR Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State (+124)

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Last week: Bye
Next: at USC, Saturday, Oct. 31, at 7:30 p.m. ET

Smith lost ground without playing a snap. Ohio State coach Ryan Day said Tuesday that quarterback Julian Sayin is out indefinitely with an injury to his throwing arm, and the Buckeyes are planning to play without him through the postseason.

True freshman Luke Fahey is the frontrunner to start at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, but five-star sophomore Tavien St. Clair also took first-team reps during the bye. Fahey has completed 9 of 13 passes for 203 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions this season.

“We’re going to play the guy that gives us the best chance to win,” Day said.

Smith has 52 catches for 984 yards and 12 touchdowns through seven games. He was candid about what the change at quarterback means for him.

“It’s going to take time to build that,” Smith said. “I ain’t going to say it’s going to take one day. It’s not that easy.”

The Buckeyes wideout’s case now runs through a road game in prime time at USC and a home date with Oregon on Nov. 7, both with an inexperienced passer throwing to him. Big games in those spots would separate him from the Miami pair because voters would see his production without Sayin’s accuracy behind it.

2. QB Darian Mensah, Miami (+290)

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Last week: W 52-23 vs. Pitt. 31-of-37, 387 yards, 4 TD
Next: at North Carolina, Saturday, Oct. 31

Mensah barely moved from +300 despite one of his most complete games of the season. Miami converted 10 of its first 12 third downs and scored on seven of its first eight possessions in its first game atop the AP poll since the 2002 season.

The Duke transfer has completed 81.4% of his passes for 2,151 yards with 22 touchdowns and one interception this season.

Toney is the reason his price stalled. The more Mensah feeds his top receiver, the more the Heisman credit inside Miami’s offense gets split between them, and the market is now pricing the two as near equals.

“A really good conference win,” Miami coach Mario Cristobal said. “Solid play.”

Miami is 7-0 and visits North Carolina before a Nov. 7 trip to Notre Dame.

3. WR Malachi Toney, Miami (+345)

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Last week: W 52-23 vs. Pitt. 16 catches for 194 yards, 3 TD
Next: at North Carolina, Saturday, Oct. 31

Toney made the biggest move on the board after breaking Miami’s single-game receptions record. The previous mark of 13 was set by Mike Harley against Duke in 2021 and matched by Toney against Pitt last season.

He had 12 catches for 159 yards and two touchdowns by halftime, matching Pitt’s total offense through two quarters. He did it after asking out of the game in the second quarter with an apparent injury, and Pitt scored while he was out to cut the lead to 17-7 before he returned.

Pitt defensive back Raion Strader said before the game, “Real dynamic player, but I think we have a great scheme for him.”

The Liberty City native has 66 catches for 952 yards and 11 touchdowns through seven games. He and Mensah now share the front of Miami’s campaign, and the Nov. 7 game at Notre Dame is the likeliest stage for voters to choose between them.

4. QB CJ Carr, Notre Dame (+2000)

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Last week: Bye
Next: at Navy (Foxborough, Mass.), Saturday, Oct. 31

Carr slid from +1500 while Notre Dame sat idle after its 28-24 loss at BYU. The Big 12 later acknowledged a clock error that cost the Irish a final play in Provo, but the loss stays on Carr’s résumé.

He has completed 129 of 193 passes for 1,639 yards with 16 touchdowns and one interception, plus three rushing scores. His worst outing came at BYU, where he went 27-of-49 for 261 yards without a touchdown. BYU’s 39-31 double-overtime loss at unranked UCF on Saturday made that result look worse in hindsight.

The Saline, Mich., native gets his best chance to climb on Nov. 7, when 6-1 Notre Dame hosts Miami with both Mensah and Toney on the other sideline.

5. QB Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (+2200)

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Last week: L 34-27 at Texas. 25-of-52, 250 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT
Next: vs. Auburn, Saturday, Oct. 31, at 12:45 p.m. ET

Chambliss took the steepest fall in the top five, drifting from +650. Ole Miss trailed 24-3 at halftime after two first-half interceptions, the second on a fourth-down throw from the Texas 2 that Rasheem Biles picked off at the goal line. It was his first multi-interception game as a Rebel.

Ole Miss then scored 21 straight points, and Chambliss tied it 24-24 with a 27-yard touchdown pass to Horatio Fields early in the fourth quarter. The Rebels recovered an onside kick in the final minutes, but Jelani McDonald intercepted his last pass in the end zone as time expired.

“I played terrible tonight,” Chambliss said. “I feel like I let my team down tonight, and it’s the worst feeling ever.”

Coach Pete Golding said his quarterback “competed his butt off.” Greg McElroy picked Ole Miss to win partly because of Chambliss’ red zone production, and the goal-line interception erased that edge at the worst moment.

The 5-2 Rebels host Auburn and Georgia before visiting Oklahoma. “Now we’ve got to win out,” Chambliss said.

Next 5

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Oregon State wide receiver Jesse Legree slid from +2000 to +2800 during a bye. Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell entered the top 10 after throwing for 311 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-20 win over Texas A&M, and LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt joined him after accounting for four touchdowns in a 38-17 win at Auburn. BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier and Indiana quarterback Josh Hoover dropped out.

6. WR Jesse Legree, Oregon State (+2800)
7. QB Gunner Stockton, Georgia (+5000)
8. QB Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State (+5000)
9. QB Keelon Russell, Alabama (+8000)
10. QB Sam Leavitt, LSU (+8800)

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