Miami vs. Florida State prediction, odds: Where the experts see an edge

In this story:
One of two games with ranked teams on the same field this weekend, Miami and Florida State will renew their rivalry as college football’s Week 6 action kicks off on Saturday.
Florida State is already under some pressure after its brilliant undefeated start was spoiled by a double-overtime loss at then-unranked, now-ranked Virginia last week, falling behind to an 0-1 mark in ACC play.
Miami plays its conference opener in this game, and is still perfect at 4-0 with resume-building wins against Notre Dame and Florida in its bid to emerge as the favorite to represent the ACC in the College Football Playoff this season.
Where is the money going in this battle between the Hurricanes and the Seminoles?
Let’s take a look at the latest predictions from the experts and the updated betting lines as Miami and Florida State face off in this Week 6 college football game.
Miami vs. Florida State picks, odds
The books are giving a slight edge to the undefeated Hurricanes in their first road test of the season against the rival Seminoles.
Miami is a 4.5 point favorite against Florida State, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering the weekend.
FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the matchup.
And it set the moneyline odds for Miami at -188 and for Florida State at +158 to win outright.
Miami: -4.5 (-110)
Florida State: +4.5 (-110)
Over 54.5 points: -110
Under 54.5 points: -110
--
Miami vs. Florida State trends
Miami is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games in October... 4-1 ATS in its last 5 road games against Florida State... Has won 14 of its previous 17 games straight-up... 5-2 overall in its last 7 road games... 2-5 in its last 7 road games against the Seminoles...
Florida State is 10-5 in its last 15 against Miami... 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games against Miami... 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games in October... Went over in 6 of its last 7 games.
--
Where the money is going
A solid majority of bettors are still going with the Hurricanes to stay undefeated and pass their first test on the road, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.
Miami is getting 62 percent of bets to win the game by at least five points and come out of Tallahassee with an undefeated record.
The other 38 percent of wagers project Florida State will either upset the Hurricanes outright or will keep the game within 5 points in what would be its second-straight loss.
--
Miami vs. Florida State score prediction
The game’s implied score suggests that the Hurricanes will be able to hold off the Seminoles on the road, but by a very close margin.
When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Miami will defeat Florida State by a projected score of 29 to 25.
- Florida State +4.5
- Miami to win -188
- Under 54.5 points
--
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
--
More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He has covered football for a decade, previously managing several team sites and publishing national content for 247Sports.com for five years. His work has also been published on CBSSports.com. He founded College Football HQ in 2020, and the site joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022 and the On SI network in 2024.