Miami's College Football Playoff chances revealed amid Pitt game

Heading into rivalry weekend, Miami is one of the programs battling for a spot in the College Football Playoff. Prior to the Pitt game, Miami had a 20% chance to make the College Football Playoff, per ESPN.

Miami's potential path got a little more complicated following Texas' upset win over Texas A&M. The Longhorns and Hurricanes are among the top teams fighting for an at-large spot.

Let's dive into Miami's potential College Football Playoff scenarios.

Miami's chances to make the College Football Playoff with a win vs. Pitt

If Miami defeats Pitt but does not make the ACC title game, the Hurricanes' postseason odds remain at 20%. A scenario where Miami makes the ACC Championship but loses in the title game would drop the Hurricanes' chances to make the College Football Playoff to 5%. Miami needs some help to make the ACC Championship.

"I do not care what they've looked like – you have to honor a direct head-to-head matchup, or else, what are we doing?"@joelklatt says if it comes down to a debate between Miami and Notre Dame, Miami should go to the playoff. Do you agree? pic.twitter.com/pTUvS4WL3q
— The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football on FOX Pod (@JoelKlattShow) November 12, 2025

A combination of Miami defeating Pitt, making the ACC Championship and winning the title game would give the Canes a 100% chance of securing a College Football Playoff berth, per ESPN's projections.

If all this plays out, Miami has a 94% chance to play a road game in the College Football Playoff as one of the final teams to make the bracket.

Miami's chances to make the College Football Playoff with a loss vs. Pitt

A loss to Pitt would likely eliminate Miami from postseason contention. Heading into the season finale against Pitt, Miami sat at No. 12 in the College Football Playoff rankings.

Miami losing to Pitt would give the Hurricanes a less than 1% chance to make the postseason, per ESPN. A loss would eliminate Miami from ACC contention and gives the Hurricanes their third loss of the season. A hot topic has been Notre Dame being ranked ahead of Miami despite the Irish losing to the Canes in the season opener.

People like @JoshPateCFB need to have a say in this College Football Playoff discussion.

Whether you believe Notre Dame would beat Miami today is irrelevant. The two teams played and Miami won.

The committee is trying to diminish the one thing that matters most—the GAMES. pic.twitter.com/nOXcmOJHZh
— Gaby Urrutia (@GabyUrrutia247) November 26, 2025

"Time is running out, though, to convince the selection committee they're better than Notre Dame -- and right now a gap remains in spite of the head-to-head win. The ACC champion -- even if it's No. 18 Virginia -- is almost certainly guaranteed a spot as one of the five-highest ranked conference champions," ESPN's Heather Dinich wrote on Tuesday.

"That's evidenced by the fact that five ACC teams are still ranked above No. 24 Tulane, the only representative from a Group of 5 conference. The question is whether Miami can do enough to join the ACC champion as an at-large team with one game remaining, on Saturday at No. 22 Pitt."