Michigan vs. Michigan State prediction: Where the experts see an edge

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Back in the rankings, Michigan hits the road against rival Michigan State as college football’s Week 9 action kicks off this Saturday, and now the experts and betting markets have revealed their prediction and preference for the game.
Michigan turned defense into offense in a comfortable win against Washington, improving to 5-2 overall with a 3-1 mark in Big Ten play, and was able to take advantage of other ranked teams losing last weekend to bounce back into the AP poll at No. 25.
No such luck for the Spartans, who are languishing near the bottom of the conference standings, sitting at 0-4 in Big Ten competition, held to fewer than 20 points in the last two games, and on a four-game losing streak overall thanks in part to the 121st ranked scoring defense, allowing nearly 33 points per game.
Where are the experts putting their money as the Wolverines and Spartans look to renew their rivalry? Let’s check in with the early prediction and betting lines for this Week 9 football matchup.
Michigan vs. Michigan State prediction, odds
The betting markets favor the Wolverines by more than two touchdowns over the Spartans entering this Big Ten classic.
Michigan is a 14.5 point favorite against Michigan State, according to the current game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the matchup.
And it set the moneyline odds for Michigan at -690 and for Michigan State at +500 to win outright.
Michigan: -14.5 (-110)
Michigan State: +14.5 (-110)
Over 49.5 points: -110
Under 49.5 points: -110
Michigan vs. Michigan State trends
Michigan is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 road games... Won 15 of its last 20 road games... Went under in 5 of its last 6 road games... 2-6 ATS in its last 8 road games against MSU... Won 2 of its last 7 road games straight-up.
Michigan State is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 games against Michigan... 0-5 ATS in its last 5 home games... 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games... Won 1 of its last 5 games... 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games against Michigan... 6-2 ATS in its last 8 home games against Michigan.
Where the money is going
The slight majority of bettors expect the Spartans to make this close against the Wolverines, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.
Michigan State is getting 53 percent of bets to either upset the Wolverines or more likely to keep the game within two touchdowns in an eventual loss.
The other 47 percent of wagers project Michigan will beat the Spartans by at least two touchdowns to cover the generous point spread.
Implied score prediction
The game’s implied score suggests that the Wolverines will take care of the Spartans and avoid the upset.
When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Michigan will defeat Michigan State by a projected score of 33 to 15.
The consensus prediction for Michigan vs. Michigan State is...
- Michigan -14.5
- Wolverines -690
- Take the under
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He has covered football for a decade, previously managing several team sites and publishing national content for 247Sports.com for five years. His work has also been published on CBSSports.com. He founded College Football HQ in 2020, and the site joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022 and the On SI network in 2024.