ESPN predicts national championship game teams before Week 2

Ohio State rises as title favorite, LSU and Penn State challenge.

A general view of the trophy before 2025 CFP National Championship Media Day at Georgia World Congress Center, Building A. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Week 1 of the college football season left little doubt about which teams sit atop the sport’s early landscape. Ohio State, the defending national champion, handled Texas in a marquee opener. LSU powered past Clemson in another high-profile clash. Those two results reshaped how ESPN’s bowl projections look just days before Week 2.

According to ESPN analysts Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach, the Buckeyes are at the center of every title conversation. Both slotted Ohio State into the national championship game in their updated predictions, with Bonagura placing Penn State on the other sideline and Schlabach picking LSU.

The consensus is that Ohio State remains the program to beat, but the challengers emerging from both the SEC and Big Ten have made their own case.

For Penn State, it is quarterback Drew Allar and a revamped receiving corps that has boosted expectations. For LSU, it is Garrett Nussmeier’s sharp play and a statement victory over Clemson. The permutations are still countless, but the early picture hints at a postseason dominated by familiar powers.

Ohio State’s Win Over Texas Changes Playoff Landscape

Bonagura framed Ohio State’s Week 1 victory as the hinge point of the entire postseason discussion. The Buckeyes may not have overwhelmed Texas, but their defense showed championship-level quality and their offense carried enough talent to inspire confidence that production will follow.

That victory pushed Ohio State to the top of ESPN’s power rankings and its Football Power Index playoff model. The Buckeyes now hold the highest chance of making the College Football Playoff at 81.6 percent.

Ohio State coach Ryan Day led the Buckeyes to a Week 1 win over No. 1 Texas on Saturday. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

What’s more, the statistical model gives Ohio State a firm edge in securing one of the four bye slots reserved for the highest-ranked teams in the 12-team bracket.

Schlabach pointed out that Georgia looms as a steady threat, particularly with young quarterback Gunner Stockton showing promise. Texas remains in the mix despite its opening loss, while Ole Miss has emerged as a statistical dark horse with a nearly 66 percent playoff probability. But Ohio State’s result against Texas recalibrated everything. It shifted the narrative from a wide-open chase to one with a clear favorite.

LSU, Penn State Provide Early Challenges To Buckeyes

ESPN’s split projection reflects the reality that Ohio State’s path will not be uncontested. Penn State’s dismantling of Nevada highlighted a more dangerous receiving corps than a year ago. Transfers Trebor Pena and Kyron Hudson gave Allar more options, and the Nittany Lions are viewed as having one of the best defenses in the country.

LSU, meanwhile, grabbed national attention with its strong showing against Clemson. Nussmeier looks like a potential first-round NFL draft pick, and the Tigers’ offensive line won the trenches in convincing fashion. That combination convinced Schlabach that LSU could line up opposite Ohio State in Miami come January.

Penn State quarterback Drew Allar looked sharp in his Week 1 tune-up game against Nevada. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The larger playoff picture also hints at SEC depth. ESPN’s model projects five teams from the conference in the 12-team field, including Tennessee, Georgia, Ole Miss, and LSU. While Alabama has slipped, the league still carries weight. With the Big Ten boasting both Ohio State and Penn State, the title race may come down to which league can survive its own gauntlet.

College football has a way of disrupting early forecasts, but the first week provided enough clarity to put Ohio State at the center of every conversation. As the season heads into Week 2, the Buckeyes are in the pole position, with LSU and Penn State building momentum as the next challengers.