ESPN SP+ computer model predicts major week 3 college football upset

Georgia Tech’s rise sets stage for potential ACC-shaking Clemson upset

The ESPN SP+ projection from Bill Connelly for Week 3 gives the slight edge to the underdog Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets over the Clemson Tigers | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Georgia Tech’s fast start has caught the attention of the computer models. Bill Connelly’s ESPN SP+ projections listed the Yellow Jackets as slight favorites over longtime rival Clemson despite sportsbooks keeping the Tigers as the betting choice.

In the projection, Georgia Tech edges Clemson 28.2 to 27.7. That outcome would snap the Jackets’ 11-year losing streak in the rivalry and mark one of the most significant moments yet in head coach Brent Key’s tenure.

The Tigers opened the year with a loss to LSU and needed a comeback to escape Troy. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, is 2-0 after a dominant win over Gardner-Webb. Saturday’s noon matchup at Bobby Dodd Stadium suddenly feels far more even than expected.

Georgia Tech Offense Surges Behind Aaron Philo

Georgia Tech’s biggest question heading into Week 2 was who would start at quarterback. With Haynes King sidelined by a nagging lower-body injury, redshirt freshman Aaron Philo earned the call and delivered one of the most prolific performances in school history.

Philo threw for 373 yards and helped the Jackets pile up 680 total yards in a 59-12 victory. It was the second-most yards in program history and included touchdown drives that consistently lasted under three minutes.

WEEK 3 SP+ PICKS

GT 28.2, Clemson 27.7?
Vols 25, Dawgs 24??
Irish 28, Aggies 25
LSU 28, Florida 25
Bama 33, Wisconsin 16
Pitt 30, WVU 26
Miami 38, USF 24
SC 30, Vandy 21

Not as many disagreements this week. Clemson aside, anyway. Full list: https://t.co/7pOK9K2Aj8 pic.twitter.com/ZlruRlTHTs

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 7, 2025

Jamal Haynes added 92 rushing yards and two scores, while Malachi Hosley ran for 100 yards and two touchdowns.

Key praised Philo for rebounding after two early turnovers, noting how quickly he settled into rhythm. Georgia Tech’s offense struck with explosive efficiency, and the depth showed with 11 different receivers making catches. That versatility gives the Jackets momentum going into Clemson week, but the quarterback decision remains unsettled with King’s status still uncertain.

Clemson Remains The Betting Favorite Despite Model Projection

Clemson has not looked like the program that once dominated the ACC, but oddsmakers still give the Tigers the edge. At FanDuel Sportsbook, Clemson opened as a 6.5-point favorite after once being nearly a double-digit choice in the offseason.

The Tigers’ slow start has raised concerns. They trailed Troy 16-0 last week before rallying behind a strong second half. Defensive playmakers like Avieon Terrell kept the game in control, but questions remain about consistency. Head coach Dabo Swinney’s group is still regarded as the preseason conference favorite, and Saturday offers a chance to reestablish confidence.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quarterback Aaron Philo (12) passed for 373 yards, one touchdown and an interception in Week 2. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

For Georgia Tech, a victory would mean far more than just ending a drought. It would provide a tiebreaker over Clemson in the ACC race and position the Jackets alongside Miami and Florida State as legitimate contenders. The weight of that opportunity, combined with a home-field advantage in Atlanta, makes this matchup one of the most intriguing storylines of Week 3.

The Yellow Jackets’ surge and Clemson’s struggles have converged to create a rivalry clash with real stakes. Whether the computers are right or the sportsbooks hold firm, the result will reverberate across the ACC race.