Alabama vs. Kansas State Sugar Bowl game prediction, preview
Most schools would love a trip to the Sugar Bowl, but Alabama isn't most teams as it plays in just its second non-College Football Playoff game in this year's Sugar Bowl against the Big 12 champion Kansas State Wildcats on New Year's Eve.
Alabama lost two games this season by a combined four points, and both on the last play of those matchups, to Tennessee and LSU. That didn't keep Nick Saban from lobbying the selection committee to include the Crimson Tide in the College Football Playoff, even if his arguments ultimately fell on deaf ears.
Going bowling: College football bowl game schedule for 2022
On the bright side, Alabama will have its two best players on the field after quarterback Bryce Young and linebacker Will Anderson both announced their intention to play in the Sugar Bowl rather than opt out to prepare for the draft.
Kansas State isn't exactly a pushover, playing behind some inspired offense most of the season and upsetting current playoff team TCU for the Big 12 title, led by backup quarterback Will Howard, playing in relief for the injured Adrian Martinez, and star running back Deuce Vaughn.
Here's what you need to know about the matchup with our updated prediction and the most recent betting lines and trends going in.
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Kansas State prediction, preview
Alabama vs. Kansas State Sugar Bowl prediction, preview
How to watch, stream
When: Sat., Dec. 31
Time: 11 a.m. Central time
TV: ESPN network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Game odds, point spread, betting lines
Game lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook and may change after publication
Point spread: Alabama -7 (-110) | Kansas State +7 (-118)
Total: 56 points | Over -110 | Under -118
Moneyline: Alabama -300 | Kansas State +200
FPI prediction: Alabama has the comfortable 72.5 percent chance to win the game outright, compared to Kansas State at 27.5 percent overall, according to the Football Power Index computer prediction model that picks winners by simulating teams' seasons 20,000 times.
Spread consensus pick: Alabama -7 (67% of bets on the Crimson Tide)
More: Alabama vs. Kansas State picks, predictions by proven computer model
Alabama football betting trends
+ Alabama is 5-6-1 against the spread overall this season
+ Tide is 04 ATS in their last 4 games against Big 12 teams
+ The under is 4-0-1 in Alabama's last five bowl games
+ Under is 6-1 in Bama's last 7 after scoring 40-plus in its last game
Kansas State football betting trends
+ Wildcats are 9-3-1 against the spread overall this season
+ Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in last six neutral site games
+ The over is 5-1 in KSU's last 6 after allowing 450-plus yards in its last game
+ Wildcats are 7-0-1 ATS in last 8 after allowing 200-plus rush yards last time out
Sugar Bowl: Keys to victory
Kansas State wins if: It balances things out and converts third downs.
The combo of Howard/Vaughn has the speed and efficiency to test just about any defense, especially when Vaughn mixes it up as a rusher and receiver and gets into space.
Kansas State averages around 210 yards per game both passing and rushing and Vaughn was solid late in the season, averaging 113 yards with 3 TDs in his last four games. If the Wildcats can get behind Alabama's front seven, they can push the ball downfield and into scoring position. But it won't be easy. K-State is just 71st nationally converting third downs 39% of the time.
Alabama wins if: Jahmyr Gibbs gets loose and the defense stands firm on third down.
Receiver play has been somewhat lacking for the Tide this year, which cut into Bryce Young's numbers, but the Georgia Tech transfer has helped pick up the slack, emerging as a quality hybrid back/receiver, posting 850 rushing yards with 7 TDs and 378 more in the air with 3 scores.
Despite the Wildcats' struggles on third down, Howard is productive in that situation, going 65% with six TDs and no picks while averaging 10 yards per throw. Alabama is a stout No. 8 nationally holding opponents to 29.4% on third down, thanks to a ferocious edge rush that can close down running lanes and throw offenses off script with virtually unbeatable speed at the point of attack.
Alabama vs. Kansas State Prediction
Back when Young and Anderson were questionable for the game, the point spread was just a field goal in the Tide's favor, but since they announced they'll play, that line more than doubled, but at just 7 points still, that says a lot about the Wildcats.
They just beat a team that's in the College Football Playoff, whereas Alabama believes it should be in the playoff, and that's an easy case to make, two losses or not.
So much of Kansas State's offense runs through Vaughn, and while he's tough to tackle, the Tide has more than enough options in pursuit and will be able to limit him to short and intermediate gains on the outside, and to little else on the inside.
Vaughn is legitimately great, rushing for 1,425 yards while averaging almost 110 per game, but he's going against an Alabama defensive unit that let just four teams go over 100 yards rushing on the year.
Saban's teams are built to withstand close games in the first half, only to explode in the second and wear their opponents down in the fourth quarter. K-State has the stuff to keep it close early, but may not have the power to hold on late.
College Football HQ Sugar Bowl prediction: Alabama 38, Kansas State 20 (Alabama -7, Over 56)
More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | All Teams