Alabama vs. Michigan: College Football Playoff Rose Bowl prediction, pick
The first leg of the final four-team College Football Playoff national semifinal brings us a classic Big Ten vs. SEC matchup between the school that has the most wins in history and the program that has dominated the 21st century like no other, as No. 1 Michigan squares off against No. 4 Alabama in the 2024 Rose Bowl semifinal game.
- Michigan: Wolverines went 13-0 despite coach Jim Harbaugh being out for 6 games over two different suspensions, winning a 3rd straight Big Ten championship
- Alabama: Despite losing to Texas early and seemingly falling out of the playoff picture, the Crimson Tide rallied to beat Georgia and win the SEC title
Alabama vs. Michigan prediction, preview
When: Mon., Jan. 1
Time: 5 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)
2024 Rose Bowl game odds
Courtesy of SI Sportsbook
Line: Michigan -2
Total: 44.5 points
Moneyline: UM -130 | UA +110
FPI pick: Michigan 55.7% to win
What to watch for
1. Big play QBs. Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe has been a revelation as the season progressed, adapting to some shaky protection by exploiting his mobility and improved accuracy, especially on deeper passes. On 20-plus yard throws, Milroe ranks 3rd with a 53.1 percent completion rate.
Who ranks No. 1? Michigan's J.J. McCarthy, who is good for 54.5 percent of those pass plays. Milroe is 1 of 3 quarterbacks to also average at least 10 yards per rushing attempt. UM is 2nd nationally in pass defense, allowing 5.82 yards per attempt; Bama is 24th, allowing 6.36 ypa.
2. Battle at the line. Michigan boasts one of college football's premier offensive lines, and Alabama one of the better defensive units in the country. Watch who wins the matchups in particular on the edges.
If the Wolverines have a relative weakness, it may be at the tackles, a potential mismatch issue facing Tide edge rusher Dallas Turner, who had 10 sacks this season. McCarthy is good under pressure, under duress on 30% of his dropbacks and hitting 63% passing and accounting for 24% of his total yards in those situations, per PFF.
3. Red zone. Alabama is almost unstoppable when working from scoring position, ranking 7th nationally in red zone offense. This season, the Crimson Tide have converted 94 percent of their trips into points (47 of 50). Of those, 25 are touchdowns. Michigan is 3rd nationally in red zone defense, allowing opponents to score 71 percent of the time, 9 of the 15 scores being touchdowns.
Michigan vs. Alabama prediction
It sounds almost too easy to just say that SEC speed wins these non-conference games, but it's a formula that has played itself out repeatedly in recent postseasons.
Michigan will challenge the Tide's receivers on the perimeter and its front seven will win battles against an Alabama protection unit that has floundered at times, while Wolverines back Blake Corum tests a run-stop that struggled somewhat against higher-quality backs like Ole Miss' Quinshon Judkins and Texas' Jonathon Brooks.
Both these defenses are great on paper, and if anything Michigan has the advantage in theory, but take into consideration that over the course of Big Ten play, it hasn't faced an opponent that will have the size and speed that Alabama presents. Talent wins out, and that edge, as always, belongs to the Tide.
College Football HQ picks...
- Alabama wins 27-20
- In an upset
- And hits the over
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