Clemson vs. North Carolina: ACC Championship Game pick, prediction, preview
A few weeks ago, the ACC Championship Game looked like it might be a play-in for the College Football Playoff before Clemson dropped two late season decisions, now going against North Carolina for a shot at a New Year's bowl instead.
That makes two straight playoffs that Clemson won't be in after the team's offensive output took a sharp downturn the last two seasons with DJ Uiagalelei at quarterback as the unit has struggled under his leadership, even if the team's front seven defensive unit remains one of the nation's most impressive.
North Carolina, by contrast, plays an aggressive brand of offense, posting the ACC's No. 1 total and scoring unit, but placing last in the league defensively by allowing 442.7 yards per game and is the only team in the conference to allow over 30 points per game.
Here's what you need to know about the game as Clemson and North Carolina meet up in Charlotte to determine the ACC champion for the 2022 season.
Clemson vs. North Carolina prediction, preview
Clemson vs. North Carolina: ACC Championship Game predictions
How to watch, stream
When: Sat., Dec. 3
Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Odds, point spread, betting lines, trends
Game lines are courtest of SI Sportsbook and may change after publication
Point spread: Clemson comes into the game as 7.5 point favorites against North Carolina, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.
Total: 64 points
Moneyline: Clemson -333 | North Carolina +220
FPI prediction: Clemson has the 77.7 percent chance to win the game outright, according to the Football Power Index computer prediction model that picks winners by simulating teams' seasons 20,000 times. North Carolina has the 22.3 percent shot to pull off the upset.
Related: Clemson vs. North Carolina picks, predictions: ACC Championship Game odds, spread, lines
+ Clemson is 5-1 against the spread in its last 6 ACC games
+ North Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games after an ATS Loss
+ The over is 6-1 in Clemson's last 7 after an ATS defeat
+ The favorite between Clemson and North Carolina is 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 overall meetings
+ The over is 4-0 in Carolina's last four neutral site games
+ North Carolina is 3-0 straight up this season as an underdog
Clemson vs. North Carolina: What you need to know
USA Today Images
1. Clemson running the ball. With the passing game behind quarterback DJ Uiagalelei not pulling its full weight, Clemson wants to get the most from its best offensive piece, running back Will Shipley. He leads a unit that posts almost 189 yards per game and has personally run for a touchdown in five straight games. Carolina struggles against the run, ranking 41st nationally allowing nearly 170 yards each time out, but has fared marginally better the last month, allowing 138.
2. Carolina wants to air it out. And it can with freshman quarterback Drake Maye, who's hitting 68% of his throws for 3,847 yards with 35 touchdowns and five picks. He should find some passing lanes open up against a Clemson secondary that has struggled at times falling out of coverage and leaving receivers open. Maye can also run a little, adding over 600 yards and six TDs with his legs. In total, Maye leads the ACC's No. 1 scoring and total offense, posting 481 yards and 37 points per game. His top target: receiver Josh Downs, 6th in FBS with 11 TD catches and with four straight games of 100 yards or more.
3. What can DJ do? The Clemson quarterback is playing under some very critical eyes late this season and is coming off a meager 8 of 29 passing game in the loss to South Carolina. But he ran pretty well in that game, accounting for 21% of the team's 237 total rushing yards. That, combined with Uiagalelei going against a Tar Heel defense that doesn't rush the pass very aggressively, doesn't rack up a ton of TFLs, and isn't getting its hands on a lot of takeaways (it's 111th in that category), could set up a decent passing day for the QB.
Clemson vs. North Carolina: Fast Facts
+ Clemson has won the last 7 ACC title games it played in
+ Carolina has scored on 50 of 59 red zone possessions (84.7%)
+ Clemson has averaged 4.3 sacks per game the last 3 games
+ 23 of Drake Maye's 35 TDs (71%) have come in the red zone
+ Clemson is 30-7 in games after a loss under Dabo Swinney
+ North Carolina is 1st nationally with 6 second-half comebacks
+ Clemson is 137-9 when leading at halftime under Swinney and 16-26 when trailing
+ 15 of Carolina's 35 passing TDs (43%) have come when the team was trailing
+ Clemson has at least 1 rushing TD in 66 of its last 67 games
+ UNC's Antoine Green is 2nd nationally with 5 catches of 50-plus yards
+ Clemson is 75-5 when scoring first since 2015
+ Carolina's Josh Downs has scored 21 TDs in his last 24 games
+ Clemson is 76-2 when running for 200 yards under Swinney
+ Carolina allows 9.5 points per game in the second half of ACC competition and 5.3 ppg in the fourth quarter
Clemson vs. North Carolina Prediction
North Carolina has a marked edge at quarterback coming into the game, and is fielding a more aggressive group of receivers to break things open in the deeper portion of the field in a way Clemson does not.
Maye will find holes against the Tiger back seven, but Carolina's relative inability to balance things out properly against a very strong Clemson front seven will slow down the offense in the second half, which will help the defensive backs get a read on the Tar Heels' route patterns and progressively tighten their coverage.
Usually, the teams that run the ball better tend to win these kinds of games, and that advantage sits with Shipley and the extra yards that Uiagalelei will tack on.
College Football HQ Prediction: Clemson 34, North Carolina 28 | Clemson doesn't cover the spread (North Carolina +7.5) | The total hits the under
Related: College football conference championship game picks, predictions
More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | All Teams