Georgia vs. TCU: College Football Playoff national championship prediction, preview
It all comes down to this, as Georgia and TCU meet in the College Football Playoff national championship game with everything on the line.
For the Bulldogs, it's a chance to emerge as the latest dynasty of the playoff era, joining the ranks of Alabama and Clemson with multiple titles, coming in as the defending national champions with a shot at a second-straight trophy.
For the Horned Frogs, a chance at their first title since 1938 and the best possible finish to cap off what has already been a huge statement for Sonny Dykes in his first season as head coach, turning around a program that was just 5-7 a year ago.
Here's what you need to know about the game to cap off the 2022 season.
College Football Playoff: Georgia vs. TCU game prediction, preview
Georgia vs. TCU: College Football Playoff national championship prediction
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How to watch, stream
When: Mon., Jan. 9
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Georgia vs. TCU odds, point spread, game lines
Game lines courtesy of SI Sportsbook and may change after publication
Point spread: Georgia comes into the game as 12.5 point favorites against TCU, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.
Total: 63.5 | Over -110 | Under -118
Moneyline: Georgia -568 | TCU +370
FPI prediction: Georgia has the 72.9 percent chance to win the national championship game, compared with TCU at 27.1 percent, according to the Football Power Index computer prediction model that picks winners by simulating teams' seasons 20,000 times.
Spread consensus pick: Georgia -12.5 (79 percent of bets on the Bulldogs)
More: Georgia vs. TCU College Football Playoff game picks, predictions
Georgia Football Betting Trends
+ Georgia is 7-7 against the spread overall this season
+ Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS when favored by 20 or fewer points
+ UGA is 3-1 against the spread against ranked opponents
+ The over is 4-1 in Georgia's last five games
+ Over is 4-1 in Bulldogs' last four games after a SU win
TCU Football Betting Trends
+ TCU is 10-3-1 against the spread overall this season
+ The under is 4-0 in TCU's last four games after an ATS win
+ Frogs are 5-0-1 ATS in last 6 after running for 200-plus yards last game
+ TCU is 3-0 SU as an underdog this season
+ Horned Frogs are 6-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points
College Football Playoff National Championship: What you need to know
1. TCU's defense. The Horned Frogs played well against Michigan's talented rushing attack last time out and will have to repeat that formula against a solid Georgia ground game with three good options — Kenny McIntosh, Kendall Milton, and Daijuan Edwards — who can move the chains and burn clock, all playing behind a line that can carve open running lanes with some regularity.
TCU is known for its 3-3-5 alignment that accentuates speed and versatility, and it likes to confuse opposing offenses by showing a wide variety of different blitz looks while playing in mostly zone coverage. It has to be quick to shut down passing lanes for Georgia's equally adept receiving targets to exploit and own the speed advantage all game to pull off the upset.
2. Red zone. TCU was 44th nationally defending the red area this season, allowing opponents to score 85.37 percent of the time. On offense, Georgia ranked 1st in college football with a 98.55 red zone scoring percentage coming into the playoff.
Defensively, the Bulldogs were 2nd, surrendering points 66.7 percent of the time, and TCU was 38th on offense, scoring points on 87 percent of possessions. If the Horned Frogs can't score touchdowns inside the 20, it will be a long night.
3. Quentin Johnston vs. Georgia's secondary. TCU came into the playoff leading college football in "explosive plays" — passes that go for 20 yards and runs that gain at least 10 — and its top receiver is key to that program.
Johnston, standing at 6-foot-4 and a consensus first-round draft choice, has big-play ability and can create mismatches against smaller defensive backs, especially if the TCU offense can do what Ohio State's did against the Bulldogs, working in some tempo to evade Georgia's skilled front seven pass rush.
4. Georgia at the line vs. Max Duggan. Granted, the Bulldogs' front seven isn't quite up to the level it was last season, but compared with other units, it's still the most physical, athletic, and fastest that TCU will face in this or any other season.
Ohio State's tempo successfully evaded the Bulldogs' inside pressure, all but neutralizing star pass rusher Jalen Carter, and kept the pocket clean most of the night. Moving the quarterback around the pocket and getting its top receivers in space quickly is key for TCU to stay ahead of schedule.
Duggan presents a credible dual threat, leading the Big 12 this season with 21 plays of 10 or more yards, and he's second nationally with 461 rushing yards at the position. The quarterback can extend plays with his legs, buying time for his targets, and Georgia will have to apply more pressure to contain Duggan and limit his release time.
5. Explosive plays. In addition to leading the nation in "explosive" gains this year, TCU is also second nationally in plays for 40 or more yards and is first overall in plays that gain 50-plus yards. And it wrecked Michigan's top-ranked D, amassing 488 total yards, averaged around seven yards per play, and hit 50 percent on third down conversions.
Georgia's defense is one of the nation's best at keeping the opposition in front of itself and not giving any extra space, but it's also shown cracks, allowing over 500 passing yards to LSU in the SEC Championship Game, and Ohio State's CJ Stroud went for 348 yards and four touchdowns in the Peach Bowl.
While on offense, though it has the potential to go deep itself, Georgia would prefer to run its usual playbook, piecing together longer, efficient drives that chew clock and end in points. Georgia ranks 5th in college football in success rate and, while not known as a big-play group, still ranks 5th in 10-plus yard plays and 6th in 20-plus gains.
Georgia vs. TCU: National Championship Prediction
Georgia vs. TCU: Who wins the College Football Playoff?
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The formula for TCU to pull off this upset is simple on paper: play more physical football in the trenches, get behind Georgia's tacklers, and get seven points each time in the red zone.
While on defense, the Frogs need to be the more aggressive side on early downs in order to force Georgia into obvious passing situations.
TCU has the speed and discipline at linebacker to help marginally contain Georgia's ground attack, but the Bulldogs have a dominant protection alignment that will open more holes for their backs to show off a combination of physical interior carries with his flash on the outside.
That, in turn, will open space behind TCU's linebackers to throw Stetson Bennett's targets open: Brock Bowers is a monster blocker and receiving threat while Arian Smith and Adonai Mitchell are emergent pieces who match up well with TCU's perimeter defenders and can get serious yards after the catch.
With Georgia's runners moving the chains, Bennett connecting with a diverse array of targets on intermediate and longer gains, and the Bulldogs' expert front seven slowly shrinking TCU's pocket and response time, that should tilt things in favor of the defending national champions.
College Football HQ National Championship Prediction: Georgia 39, TCU 27 (TCU +12.5, Over 63.5)
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