Independence Bowl 2023: Cal vs. Texas Tech prediction, pick

The opening weekend of the 2023-24 College Football Bowl Season brings us seven matchups across the country from the morning until late night, and the final matchup of the first day wraps up with the Independence Bowl. The game brings us the second all-time meeting between Texas Tech and Cal, and the first time the schools played each other since Tech beat Aaron Rodgers and the Golden Bears in 2004.

Cal vs. Texas Tech prediction, preview

When: Sat., Dec. 16
Time: 9:15 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN/ESPN+
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Independence Bowl game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Texas Tech -3.5
Total: 58.5 points
Moneyline: Tech -170 | Cal +145
FPI pick: Texas Tech 59.2% to win

What to watch for

1. Battle of backs. Both teams have the capacity to run the ball with authority. For Cal, it's about Jaydn Ott, a sophomore who has run for 1,260 yards this season, good for the 13th most nationally, going against Tech's 94th ranked rush defense, one that allows 4.5 ypc. And for the Red Raiders, it starts with Tahj Brooks, whose 1,443 rushing yards are the 4th most in college football. His job is tougher, as Cal is 39th against the run, allowing under 4 ypc and only 134 yards per game.

2. Turnovers. Cal's defense doesn't do a ton that's great, whether its rushing the quarterback or locking down deep throwing lanes, but it is good at getting the ball, ranking top-40 nationally in margin and has forced multiple takeaways in seven games. Texas Tech is just 119th nationally with a minus-8 turnover margin, losing 21 and taking only 13.

3. Tech's losses. Former starting quarterback Tyler Shough is in the portal after missing much of the season with an injury, and the Red Raiders also lost two of their top three receiving targets: Jerand Bradley and Myles Price, who together comprise 43 percent of the team's receiving touchdowns and 32 percent of its air yardage. Behren Morton is a 62% passer who should find room against a Cal defense that's 127th against the pass and 106th in total defense.

Independence Bowl prediction

Both teams are similar, but the Red Raiders come into the game with the general advantage in the most important phases of the game: they have the better quarterback, the more productive lead rusher, and the superior defense. But Cal's the better team against the run, which, combined with Texas Tech's turnover trouble, should level things off and keep this close.

College Football HQ picks...

Texas Tech wins 34-27
Covers the spread
And hits the over

Bet on Cal vs. Texas Tech here

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