Fenway Bowl 2022: Louisville vs. Cincinnati game prediction, preview
This year's Fenway Bowl took a very interesting turn thanks to head coach Scott Satterfield, who left the Louisville position to take the same job at Cincinnati, and now the two programs meet on the same field as college football bowl season kicks off.
The game represents a renewal of the Keg of Nails rivalry and is the first meeting between the former Big East foes since the 2013 season, but will feature new faces on both sidelines after each school moved on in recent weeks.
In addition to Satterfield leaving UL, Luke Fickell left Cincinnati for Wisconsin, leaving two interim coaches to take the helm: Deion Branch at Louisville and Kerry Coombs is in for the Bearcats.
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Louisville finished the regular season at 7-5 overall but won five of its final seven games, including wins over ranked ACC foes NC State and Wake Forest. And in addition to not having its coach, UL will also be without star quarterback Malik Cunningham among other key playmakers.
Cincinnati owns a 9-3 mark on the year but missed out on an AAC title a year after making history as the first Group of Five team to qualify for the College Football Playoff.
Here's what you need to know about the matchup.
Fenway Bowl 2022: Louisville vs. Cincinnati prediction, preview
When: Sat., Dec. 17
Time: 11 a.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
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Odds, point spread, betting lines
Game lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook and may change after publication
Point spread: Louisville comes into the matchup as narrow 2 point favorites against Cincinnati, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.
Total: 39.5 points
Moneyline: Louisville -133 | Cincinnati +105
Place your bets: Bet on Louisville vs. Cincinnati live on SI Sportsbook
FPI prediction: Louisville has the 55.4 percent to win the game outright, compared with Cincinnati at 44.6 percent, according to the Football Power Index computer prediction model that picks winners by simulating teams' seasons 20,000 times.
Louisville vs. Cincinnati: Keys to victory
Louisville wins if: It can replace its lost starting talent. In addition to Cunningham, the Cardinals will also go without running back Tiyon Evans and receiver Tyler Hudson, and with them go most of the team's offensive output, including 87% of its rushing touchdowns. Brock Domann saw limited action, but in three longer showings didn't complete more than 14 passes or go over 175 yards in those games. Watch how UL employs tight end Marshon Ford and receivers Ahmari Huggins-Bruce and Braden Smith, in addition to lead back Jawhar Jordan, who led the team with 700 rushing yards, but scored just twice this season.
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Cincinnati wins if: It maintains its gains on defense. Cincy comes into the game ranked in the top 25 nationally in both total and scoring defense and should have most of the unit intact, especially among its strong linebacker corps, led by Ivan Pace, who is first on the team with 9 sacks and has 120 stops and UC led the AAC with 34 sacks overall. Defense will have to make the big plays as Cincinnati will also be without important offensive pieces like tight end Josh Whyle and receiver Tre Tucker and quarterback Ben Bryant is out after suffering a season-ending foot injury.
Fenway Bowl Prediction
Not having its most important playmakers on offense combined with its opponent fielding the superior defense should be a recipe for failure on Louisville's side.
Cincinnati seems to have more of the right pieces in place on defense right now and the Cardinals have lost just too much of its production — Louisville scored 66% of its touchdowns on the ground, and Cunningham scored 52% of those — to pick it against the Bearcats' competent front seven pursuit group.
But watch how the Louisville pass rush is able to generate pressure against a Cincinnati offense that won't have starter Ben Bryant in the pocket, or targets Whyle and Tucker, combined with the Cardinals' own 19th ranked scoring defense, and this one should be close.
College Football HQ Prediction: Cincinnati 20, Louisville 17 | Cincinnati +2 | Under 39.5
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