Michigan vs. Rutgers score prediction by college football computer model
Jim Harbaugh makes his return to the sideline this weekend as the Wolverines head coach ends his self-imposed suspension, in his 2023 season debut as No. 2 Michigan welcomes Rutgers in college football's Week 4 action on Saturday.
Rutgers is a sturdy 3-0 football team coming in, having defeated Northwestern, Temple, and Virginia Tech in succession, scoring 24 or more points each time out and averaging 346 yards per game on average, boasting a solid ground attack good for 211 yards each time out and quarterback Gavin Wimsatt scoring 5 all-purpose touchdowns.
As expected, Michigan is also undefeated, scoring between 30 and 35 points in three games against ECU, UNLV, and Bowling Green coming into the Big Ten opener, averaging 402 yards per game. Blake Corum is responsible for 54 percent of the Wolverines' rushing yards and all of the team's 6 rushing touchdowns.
What can we expect when things kick off? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 4 game.
Michigan vs. Rutgers predictions
Michigan vs. Rutgers picks, best bets
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Score prediction: The models favor Michigan to win the game outright with 95 percent likelihood, and to defeat Rutgers by a projected score of 37 to 9, an expected 28.6 point margin of victory, according to the simulations.
Point spread: That would be enough to cover the spread, as Michigan comes into the game as 24.5 point favorites against Rutgers, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, and enough to hit the over, as SI set the game total at 43.5 points.
FPI prediction: College Football Power Index, another computer predictive system, forecasts that Michigan has the 84.9 percent chance to win, according to the simulations that replicate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
Where the bets are: Bettors are siding with Rutgers at +24.5 as the spread consensus pick shows 62 percent of wagers expect the Knights to cover as underdogs, while 38 percent say Michigan will cover, and 100 percent of bets picking the over.
Betting trends: Rutgers is 4-2 ATS in the last 6 games... Total went under in 11 of Rutgers' last 13 road games... Rutgers is 9-2 ATS in last 11 September games... Michigan is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games... Wolverines are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 at home in September... Total went under in 12 of Michigan's last 18 games.
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Rutgers vs. Michigan schedule
When: Sat., Sept. 23
Where: Michigan
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Big Ten Network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)
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