Michigan vs. TCU: College Football Playoff Fiesta Bowl game prediction, preview
This year's College Football Playoff features one second-timer and one first-timer going head to head as Michigan faces TCU in the Fiesta Bowl semifinal game on New Year's Eve.
Michigan booked its second-straight CFP berth and has been on a tear the last two seasons, going 25-2 overall with two wins over Ohio State and winning a pair of Big Ten football championships, and comes in at 13-0 for the first time ever.
The Wolverines are the only team in the College Football Playoff that ranks in the top 10 nationally on both sides of the ball, scoring 40.1 points per game on average while on defense holding opponents to just 13.4 points each time out.
Related: College Football Playoff games, rankings: How to watch, stream
TCU is making its College Football Playoff debut after running the table during the regular season behind a spirited offense that posted over 470 yards per game, led by Heisman finalist quarterback Max Duggan, and led a number of dramatic comebacks against conference opponents.
But notably not in the Big 12 Championship Game, where the Horned Frogs lost their first game of the year, against Kansas State, but it was enough to stay at No. 3 in the CFP rankings and earn a shot against No. 2 ranked Michigan.
TCU posted 40.3 points per game on the year and won five games against top 25 ranked teams, setting up the first-ever Big 12 vs. Big Ten game in the College Football Playoff era.
Here's what you need to know about the matchup with the latest betting information and our latest predictions for the game.
College Football Playoff: Michigan vs. TCU Fiesta Bowl game prediction, preview
Michigan vs. TCU College Football Playoff prediction, preview
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How to watch, stream
When: Sat., Dec. 31
Time: 4 p.m. ET, 3 p.m. CT
TV: ESPN network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Fiesta Bowl game odds, point spread, betting lines
Game lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook and may change after publication
Point spread: Michigan comes in as 7.5 point favorites against TCU | Michigan -7.5 (-118) | TCU +7.5 (-110)
Total: 58 | Over -110 | Under -118
Moneyline: Michigan -333 | TCU +240
FPI prediction: Michigan has the 66.7 percent chance to win the game, compared to TCU at 33.3 percent, according to the Football Power Index computer prediction model that picks winners by simulating teams' seasons 20,000 times.
Spread consensus pick: Michigan -7.5 (58% of bets are on the Wolverines)
More: Michigan vs. TCU picks, predictions by computer model
TCU betting trends
+ TCU is 9-3-1 against the spread overall this season
+ Horned Frogs are 2-0 SU as an underdog this year
+ 4 of TCU's last 5 games hit the under
+ Under is 4-1 in TCU's last 5 games overall
+ The over is 4-1 in Frogs' last 5 games after an ATS loss
+ TCU is 5-1 SU in games decided by 8 or fewer points
Michigan betting trends
+ Wolverines are 8-4-1 against the spread overall this season
+ Michigan is 6-1 ATS when it scores 35 or more points
+ UM is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games after a SU win
+ Michigan is 3-0-1 against the spread in its last 4 after an ATS win
+ Wolverines are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 bowl games
College Football Playoff Fiesta Bowl: What you need to know
1. Michigan in the second half. Few teams in college football are better than holding or advancing leads after the halftime break. This year, Michigan has a plus-206 point differential in the second half, an edge that it built in part behind a stellar, error-free approach to running the football behind a stout offensive line led by Remington award winning center Olu Oluwatimi.
Compare that with TCU after the half, which is plus-98. It needs to go into the break with the lead and establish the run with Kendre Miller to prevent the Wolverines from building on their strength.
2. TCU is great in close games. Many times this season, the Horned Frogs had to dig their way out of some holes and win closely-fought games, finishing the year with a perfect 5-0 mark in one-score matchups during the regular season. And they nearly did it again against K-State in the Big 12 title game. Overall, TCU recorded six wins this season after being down by double digits in the second half.
As good as TCU is in close games, to its credit Michigan doesn't play in many. It leads college football nationally with an average margin of victory of 26.7 points per game and played in just two games decided by one score. If the game gets as close as the oddsmakers predict, TCU could be in a position, with its experience and athleticism at the skill positions, to make a comeback.
3. Michigan running the ball. It's how the Wolverines were able to play so dominantly all season long, ranking 5th nationally with 243 rushing yards per game, 3rd overall with 5.6 yards per carry, and 2nd in the country with 38 rushing touchdowns total. Much of that success was courtesy of Blake Corum, a Heisman-worthy player whose year was cut short by a knee injury, though his absence hasn't been the killer it could have been thanks to some solid depth.
Donovan Edwards is more than capable of logging starter snaps, gashing the Buckeyes for 216 rushing yards and two touchdowns and then stacked up another 185 yards on the ground against Purdue in the Big Ten Championship Game. Michigan is at its best when getting push off the line, racking up consistent intermediate gains from its backs, and then sneaking a receiver downfield in space for a quick shot.
Michigan vs. TCU Prediction
TCU has the ability to throw the Wolverines out of sorts defensively if quarterback Max Duggan is efficient early and can make some plays outside the pocket.
Duggan commands an offense that ranks No. 6 according to SP+. He can make long throws downfield and extends plays with well-placed running prowess.
His top target will be Quentin Johnston, the 6-foot-4 behemoth receiver who will win more matchups than he loses against a group of Michigan secondary defenders who have been known to allow contested catches against better receivers.
TCU will move the ball with some regularity on the Wolverines' defense, but it needs to cash in when in scoring position: Michigan has allowed 11 touchdowns on 29 red zone attempts this year, while the Frogs are 44th nationally at 85.37 percent inside the 20.
TCU has the speed and discipline at linebacker to help marginally contain Michigan's ground attack, but the Wolverines have a dominant protection alignment that will open more holes for Edwards to show off his combination of physical interior carries with his flash on the outside.
With Edwards moving the chains and McCarthy hitting enough intermediate throws, that should be enough to keep TCU off the field just enough to pull this out. But it'll be a fight.
College Football HQ Fiesta Bowl prediction: Michigan 36, TCU 31 (TCU +7.5, Over 58)
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