Michigan vs. Iowa: Big Ten Championship Game odds, prediction

After having decisively tilted the sport's most intense rivalry in its favor for the third-straight season by downing Ohio State again, now Michigan moves on to the next part of its plan: take on West champion Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game and, in so doing, earn a third-straight appearance in the College Football Playoff. And from there? Earn its first-ever berth in a CFP national championship game.

Iowa took the West Division title this season behind a 10-2 record earned mostly on the back of its superb defensive unit, one that ranks 4th nationally by allowing just 12.2 points per game, and 7th overall in total production, while posting the 2nd best average in college football by limiting opponents to just 3.9 yards per play.

Offensively, however, is another story. On that score, Iowa is legendarily below average, ranking just 124th nationally by scoring 18 points per game on average, coming in 130th in passing production, and 104th in rushing yards per game.

Michigan vs. Iowa game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Michigan -23
Total: 35.5 points
Moneyline: UM -4000 | Iowa +1800

Early computer predictions

Most simulations predictably favor the Wolverines to handle Iowa in Indy.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Right now, the index strongly expects Michigan to win the game, coming out ahead in 92.6 percent of simulations, compared to Iowa, which wins the game in the remaining 7.4 percent of sims.

By taking each team's scoring margin into account, the computer predicts that Michigan will defeat Iowa by 20.5 points, not enough to cover the line on the SI book.

Based on the point spread and total projection, the implied score of the game would have Michigan beat Iowa, 29-7, also not enough to cover the spread.

The Wolverines have an implied 97.56 percent chance to win the game outright.

Michigan is 6-5-1 against the spread this season (54.5%).

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Michigan vs. Iowa game time

When: Sat., Dec. 2
Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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