Ole Miss vs. Auburn score prediction by college football computer model

In three attempts, first-year head coach Hugh Freeze has been unable to secure a single SEC conference victory, something he'll reach for this weekend as Auburn welcomes No. 13 ranked Ole Miss in college football's Week 8 action.

Auburn hasn't scored more than 20 points in those three games against SEC opposition thanks to a paltry offensive passing attack, but working behind a solid defensive core that has played well against the pass, and kept things close all day against Georgia recently.

The Rebels are fresh off an open week and come in at 5-1 overall with a 2-1 mark in SEC play, beating LSU in an instant classic and taking down Arkansas in a 7-point decision, but still with the loss at Alabama putting their SEC West title hopes on ice for now.

What do the analytics make of the matchup? Let's turn to the SP+ predictive model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly to help us make the predictions.

Ole Miss vs. Auburn prediction

Score prediction

As expected, the simulations favor Ole Miss to defeat Auburn outright.

SP+ projects that the Rebels will take down the Tigers by a projected score of 32 to 24, winning by a projected scoring margin of 7.7 points in the game.

The model gives Ole Miss a 67 percent chance to win the game, compared with Auburn at 33 percent outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the model is 188-178-10 straight-up (51.3%) and 173-195-8 against the spread (47.1%).

Point spread

Ole Miss is a 6.5 point favorite against Auburn, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 55.5 points for the game.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

Ole Miss -6.5
Rebs on the ML at -250
Bet over 55.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic models also predict Ole Miss will defeat Auburn.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer predictive tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick game winners.

The index projects Ole Miss wins out in 77.2 percent of its simulations, while Auburn wins the game in the remaining 22.8 percent of sims.

FPI expects Ole Miss to win the game by 12 points over Auburn.

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Ole Miss at Auburn schedule

When: Sat., Oct. 21
Time: 6 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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