College Football HQ

Penn State vs. Michigan State picks, predictions: Land Grant Trophy game odds, lines

Expert game predictions for Penn State vs. Michigan State by the college football model that picks winners
James Parks|
Penn State vs. Michigan State picks, predictions: Land Grant Trophy game odds, lines
Penn State vs. Michigan State picks, predictions: Land Grant Trophy game odds, lines

One of the most closely contested rivalries in college football history returns to the field for the regular season finale on Friday, as Big Ten rivals Penn State and Michigan State meet for the Land Grant Trophy to kick off Week 13 action.

  • Land Grant series is tied 18-18-1 dating back to 1914, although with long gaps between the teams meeting
  • Penn State was bounced from Big Ten title contention again this year after losses to division rivals Ohio State, Michigan
  • Lions are 102nd nationally passing the ball, but 4th in scoring defense, allowing just 12.5 points per game on average to opponents
  • Spartans are 2-6 in Big Ten play and lost 6 straight while ranking 90th in passing, 128th in scoring, and 123rd in rushing this season

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Penn State vs. Michigan State picks, predictions

College Football Power Index is a computer prediction model devised by analysts that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Penn State odds: The simulations overwhelmingly favor the Nittany Lions to win the game, coming out ahead in 95 percent of the projections, or 19,000 of the total predictions by the model.

Michigan State odds: That leaves the Spartans as the projected winner in the remaining 5 percent of sims, or 1,000 predictions.

Point spread: Penn State is a 20 point favorite against Michigan State, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 42.5 points for the game.

Moneyline: PSU -1800 | MSU +1000

Score prediction? By taking the average between each team's projected scoring margin per game, the computer predicts that Penn State will defeat Michigan State by 26.6 points, or by 27 if we round that number up, enough to cover the line.

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Penn State vs. Michigan State game time

When: Fri., Nov. 24
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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James Parks
JAMES PARKS

James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He has covered football for a decade, previously managing several team sites and publishing national content for 247Sports.com for five years. His work has also been published on CBSSports.com. He founded College Football HQ in 2020, and the site joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022 and the On SI network in 2024.

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