UCF vs. Duke picks, predictions: Military Bowl schedule, odds

The college football bowl season marches on after Christmas as UCF and Duke square off in the Military Bowl on Wednesday.

Duke was a pleasant surprise out of the ACC under first-year head coach Mike Elko, going 8-4 overall while winning four of the last five overall, and playing in some close calls: just two points away from finishing the season on a 5-game sweep and just 8 combined points from finishing with one loss.

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UCF played for the AAC title this fall despite a late-season loss to Navy, boasting wins over Cincinnati and Tulane in the regular season, but succumbing to Tulane in the rematch for the conference championship.

Duke is led by Riley Leonard, its main offensive producer who passed for 2,794 yards and was No. 1 on the team with 636 rushing yards, accounting for 31 all-purpose touchdowns.

John Rhys Plumee is the key piece for UCF, throwing for 2,904 yards and a team-best 841 rushing yards, finishing with 25 touchdowns on the season.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Military Bowl: Duke vs. UCF picks, predictions

UCF prediction: The index favors the Knights, who have a 56.9 percent chance to win the game outright, according to the latest projections.

Duke prediction: That leaves the Blue Devils with a close 43.1 percent shot to pull off the upset against the challengers from the Group of Five.

Point spread: The oddsmakers take a different view, naming Duke as the 3.5 point favorites against UCF, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.

Total: SI set the over/under mark at 62.5 points for the game.

Moneyline: Duke -188 | UCF +138

Straight up records: Duke 8-4 | UCF 9-4

Against the spread records: Duke 8-4 | UCF 7-6

Duke betting trends: 5-0 ATS in its last 5 bow games... Over is 6-0 in Duke's last 6 bowl games... Devils have covered in last 3 games... Duke is 3-3 ATS as a favorite.

UCF betting trends: Knights are 1-1 both SU and ATS as an underdog... The over is 4-1 in UCF's last five games overall.

Spread consensus pick: Duke -3.5

Score prediction: Team Rankings projects that Duke will defeat UCF by an estimated score of 32.7 to 28.1 and win the Military Bowl. (Duke -3.5, Under 62.5)

How to watch, stream: The game is set for Wed., Dec. 28 at 2 p.m. Eastern time on the main ESPN network and streams live on fuboTV (Try for free).

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

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