ESPN computer predicts ACC rankings for 2022 college football season
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For the last few years in the ACC, it's been Clemson and everybody else. But last season, it was Pitt and Wake fighting for the title, while Miami and NC State placed second in their respective divisions.
Could we see a repeat of that this season? Kenny Pickett may be gone, but those other contenders all bring back their quarterbacks and field offenses that can keep this conference more open at the top.
That doesn't mean Clemson is an afterthought, though. This is still the most talented roster in the conference from top to bottom, especially on defense.
We'll see if this offense can improve with DJ Uiagalelei at quarterback and if Dabo Swinney and Co. have the speed at the skill positions to help him out.
What can we expect in the ACC this season? Scroll through to see where each team in this league sits in the ESPN preseason football rankings.
Where each ACC team stands in the preseason rankings
14. Duke
Preseason ranking: No. 102
Record prediction: 4-8
What to expect: More of the same from the Blue Devils after sitting in the ACC basement last year, David Cutcliffe's final outing on the sideline. Enter Mike Elko, a first-time head coach tasked with making something out of almost nothing.
He needs a quarterback, a running back, and some quick fixes for a defense that placed last in the ACC. There's about a 9 percent chance to get to six wins here, which is all that can be said for this team in its current iteration.
13. Virginia Tech
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Preseason ranking: No. 74
Record prediction: 5-7
What to expect: Watch how the quarterback competition shakes out this offseason between a pair of transfers in Grant Wells and Jason Brown. But whoever wins that job could sure use some help after Tech lost both leading receivers from 2021.
Having seven returning starters defensively should ease this transition for a team that won just two ACC games at home last fall and got plastered by Maryland in the Pinstripe Bowl.
FPI projects a 40 percent chance for the Hokies to get back to a bowl game, but this team isn't ready to make a push for the division just yet.
12. Georgia Tech
Preseason ranking: No. 67
Record prediction: 4-8
What to expect: Tech lost two offensive pieces in quarterback Jordan Yates, who transferred out, and running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who left for Alabama.
Head coach Geoff Collins needs to give a jolt to an offense that placed third-worst in the ACC at 24 points per game. Jeff Sims returns at quarterback after passing for 12 TDs and seven picks, but there isn't a ton to work with around him moving the ball.
Tech was also the second-worst defense in the conference last season, and the unit brings back just two projected starters this fall.
11. Syracuse
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Preseason ranking: No. 62
Record prediction: 5-7
What to expect: Dino Babers comes into what could be a defining season for his tenure at Syracuse. The head coach only had one winning season out of six, and comes in under pressure to correct a record that includes just 15 wins in 50 ACC appearances.
Syracuse fielded the league's fourth-worst total offense a year ago and mustered under 150 air yards per game, the ACC's worst mark. The best this Orange team has according to FPI is a 30 percent chance to finish bowl eligible.
10. Boston College
Preseason ranking: No. 59
Record prediction: 6-6
What to expect: BC gets some important inputs back on offense this season who can work the middle of the field, especially with quarterback Phil Jurkovec returning from injury. But this offensive line is a work in progress and the Eagles have to replace three starters in the secondary unit.
This was a 6-6 team a year ago, but not even Jurkovec coming back was enough for FPI to predict any more than that this season, with a 53% chance to win six games and get to a bowl.
9. Virginia
Preseason ranking: No. 54
Record prediction: 7-5
What to expect: First-year head coach Tony Elliott steps into a program with mixed results, a lot of potential, but also a ton of structural issues. He inherits an offense that ranked No. 3 in college football last season and gets quarterback Brennan Armstrong back behind center.
But this offensive line needs to start from scratch and the Cavs need a new vision on defense after surrendering almost five TDs per game in ACC play and surrendered over 45 points in three of its six losses, including 59 to UNC and 66 to BYU. FPI projects Virginia will make a bowl with 80 percent likelihood.
8. Louisville
Preseason ranking: No. 36
Record prediction: 7-5
What to expect: Getting quarterback Malik Cunningham back on the field is a major positive for the Cardinals. He was a 62% passer a year ago, throwing for 2,734 yards and 18 touchdowns to only six interceptions, while also rushing for over 1,000 yards and 20 additional touchdowns, both top 10 numbers nationally.
Louisville will need everything it can get from its quarterback, with four of its first six games on the road, and finishing up at Clemson, against NC State, and at rival Kentucky. There's a 71 percent chance Louisville gets to six wins, which seems more than doable after this team lost three ACC games last fall by a combined 10 points.
7. Florida State
Preseason ranking: No. 31
Record prediction: 7-5
What to expect: In two years, Mike Norvell is just 8-13 with the Seminoles, nowhere even in the orbit of what this program expects. This time around, FSU brings on a nice mixture of veteran experience and newcomers and a schedule with chances to prove itself. Clemson and Florida come to Doak and there are road trips to Miami and NC State.
Jordan Travis is a potential difference-maker at quarterback, throwing 15 TDs and six picks last fall, but didn't have a turnover in five outings. FSU went 4-1 in that stretch. And the Seminoles could make a statement in their season opener: in New Orleans against LSU, a traditional SEC power starting over with a first-year coach that looks beatable.
6. Wake Forest
Preseason ranking: No. 30
Record prediction: 8-4
What to expect: Wake jumped out to an 8-0 mark last fall behind a top 15 offense and a scoring unit that placed fifth nationally. Sam Hartman, a 4,200-yard passer with 39 touchdowns in 2021, returns at quarterback with a support cast of nine expected starters coming back on offense.
But the Deacs also ranked 91st in total defense and the unit was costly in a 1-3 stretch against UNC, Clemson, NC State, and Pitt.
Wake is a virtual lock to get back to a bowl game, but the FPI prediction wizards don't foresee much else from this team in 2022. There's just an 8 percent chance to take the division again and all of 3.1% to win the ACC.
5. NC State
Preseason ranking: No. 26
Record prediction: 8-4
What to expect: Four points kept the Wolfpack from an undefeated mark in ACC play, a run that included a win over No. 9 Clemson and with losses at Miami and at Wake. Ten starters on defense that ranked No. 3 in the ACC last fall come back for a reunion in 2022, as does quarterback Devin Leary, a 3,400-yard passer in 2021 with 35 touchdowns against three picks.
There's a slip-up somewhere on this schedule with road dates against Clemson and then Louisville and UNC to end the season, plus a home tilt with Wake. FPI projects four losses here, which might seem harsh when looking at this roster. NC State could start 4-0 going into Clemson, and there's no Notre Dame this year.
4. North Carolina
Preseason ranking: No. 22
Record prediction: 8-4
What to expect: Quite a lot, according to the football index, which predicts a major turnaround for the Tar Heels, placing inside the preseason top 25 rankings. It's somewhat surprising given this team won just three ACC games a year ago and has to replace Sam Howell at quarterback in addition to the bulk of its carries and four offensive line starters.
That said, UNC does return some elite receiver talent and a solid defensive group highlighted by excellent recruiting gains and the return of Gene Chizik at coordinator. FPI doesn't like the Heels to make a run at the conference this year, but gives them a 22 percent chance to win this division.
3. Miami
Preseason ranking: No. 18
Record prediction: 8-4
What to expect: Mario Cristobal returns to his alma mater with a great coaching staff and a solid fixture at quarterback in Tyler Van Dyke, but with some work to do everywhere else. Especially at receiver, which just lost most of its top production to the NFL.
But there's a lot of youth and promise here, especially in the secondary, which brings a lot of speed and athleticism to the fore. FPI gives The U, which was just eight combined points from a perfect ACC record last fall, a 28 percent chance to win its division this season.
2. Pittsburgh
Preseason ranking: No. 9
Record prediction: 10-3
What to expect: FPI made its prediction for Pitt thinking that Jordan Addison would be playing receiver here this fall. But he's gone, taking his college football-leading 17 TDs with him to USC. If so, that would potentially crater Pitt's offensive firepower, though it did score transfer quarterback Kedon Slovis. FPI gives the Panthers a second-best 16% shot to win the ACC, but take that number with a grain of salt.
1. Clemson
Preseason ranking: No. 4
Record prediction: 11-1
What to expect: Back to normal for the Tigers this season, according to the projections, which include a 58% chance to win the ACC and a 59% shot at making the College Football Playoff again. That includes a 26 percent shot at the national title game and an 11.1 percent chance at winning it all.
DJ Uiagalelei returns at quarterback with 5-star pedigree but coming off a very sluggish outing in 2021, throwing nine TDs and 10 picks. Will Shipley returns to the backfield, and there's plenty of speed Clemson can throw out onto the perimeter. Defensively, the secondary needs some work but the front seven is expected to dominate again with Myles Murphy and Bryan Bresee on the line.