Alabama vs. Mississippi State preview, prediction: Week 8 college football picks
A pair of SEC West rivals square off at Bryant-Denny both coming off losses as Alabama hosts Mississippi State in college football's Week 8 action on Saturday.
For the Crimson Tide, it was a 3-point loss at Tennessee, its first since 2006, and for the Bulldogs, a 10-point decision to Kentucky.
Alabama comes in at No. 2 in the West Division chase, behind undefeated Ole Miss and 3-1 in SEC games, while MSU sits at 4th, behind the LSU team it lost to, at 2-2 in conference play.
Traditionally, this series has gone the Crimson Tide's way: it owns the 84-18-3 advantage since 1896. MSU beat Bama by 5 in Nick Saban's debut season, but it's been 14 straight for the Tide since then.
Here's what you need to know about Saturday's matchup.
Alabama vs. Mississippi State preview, prediction
Week 8 college football picks: Alabama vs. Mississippi State
How to watch
When: Sat., Oct. 22
Time: 7 p.m. ET, 6 p.m. CT
TV: ESPN network
Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
More college football on SI: College football scores | College football rankings | College football schedule
Odds, point spread, betting lines
Odds courtesy of SI Sportsbook
Line: Alabama -21
Alabama ATS: 4-3
Mississippi State ATS: 4-2-1
Over/under: 61
Moneyline: MSU +900, UA -2000
FPI pick: Alabama 90.8%
Related: Alabama vs. Mississippi State picks, predictions: Week 8 college football odds spread, lines
Alabama vs. Mississippi State: What you need to know
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1. Will Rogers vs. Tide secondary. We're at the point where we need to very critically judge the performance of Alabama against good quarterbacks. There were warnings in the Texas game before Quinn Ewers' injury, and then Hendon Hooker hit 21 of 30 for 385 yards and 5 TDs last week, including the game-winning drive in just 3 plays over 15 seconds. In comes Will Rogers, the SEC's all-time leader in completions, but not particularly known for his deep game. Rogers excels in more medium range passes, and MSU is 0-2 when he's held to under 3 TDs.
2. Flag Day. You've probably heard by now that Alabama has a little issue with the penalties. This is Nick Saban's most undisciplined team at UA, with 66 penalties so far this season, the most in FBS to this point. The 17 at Tennessee were very costly and there were 15 at Texas, too. Mississippi State also struggles in this category, ranking 109th nationally with 48 total flags this season. Statistically speaking, penalties aren't a huge part of the story of any team, but those little mistakes add up, and reflect a lack of discipline overall.
3. Bama's special teams. They weren't very special last week in a game when they needed to be perfect. One bad punt here, a missed field goal there with a chance to win, and a goof on a return attempt that was fumbled that resulted in a touchdown the other way. Alabama needs to better protect the football when changing possession and more evenly cover the field when defending against returns.
Fast Facts
+ Alabama is 9-1 after a regular season loss under Nick Saban
+ MSU leads the SEC with 9 INTs, 14th nationally
+ Alabama is 4th nationally scoring 45.0 points per game
+ Bulldogs are outscoring opponents 66-7 in the first quarter
+ Bryce Young has led 30 TD drives this season, averaging 5.84 plays per drive and 65.6 yards
+ MSU is 1st nationally in red zone TD pct (90.91)
+ Alabama is 7th in total offense with 513 yards per game
+ Bulldogs are 1st nationally with 63.64 TD pct in the red zone and lead FBS with 5.59 points per red zone drive
+ Crimson Tide is 1st nationally with 6.55 yards per carry on average
+ Mississippi State has scored on 18 straight red zone trips and 15 straight TDs
+ Alabama has won 49 of its last 50 games when scoring a TD on the first possession of the game
+ Bulldogs have at least 1 takeaway in 25 of 31 games
+ Tide is 2nd nationally in third down conversion defense (25.2%)
+ Rogers has thrown an INT on 1.26 percent of passing attempts
+ Bama has forced a turnover in 96 of the last 107 games
+ 9 MSU players have caught a TD, 3rd most in FBS
+ Alabama is 6th nationally allowing 4.42 yards per play
+ Mississippi State is 12-0 when scoring 30 points under Mike Leach and 12-4 when scoring first
Alabama vs. Mississippi State Prediction
Maybe no coach is better than coming back after a loss in college football history than Nick Saban, and judging by the oddsmakers' expertise, Alabama fans have no reason to worry about this game.
Rogers is a very efficient passer, but does most of his damage in the medium portion of the field, into the heart of this Crimson Tide defense, which should open up some room for the secondary to get more aggressive in the deeper part of the field.
Moreover, the Bulldogs perform poorly where running the ball is concerned, 123rd nationally at just 93 yards per game and 79th in rushing defense.
Bryce Young should have room to work against a lukewarm Bulldog pass rush while the Tide's powerful ground attack goes to work carving out consistent gainers .
College Football HQ Prediction: Alabama 37, Mississippi State 23
College football rankings
According to AP top 25 poll
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- Clemson
- Michigan
- Alabama
- Ole Miss
- TCU
- UCLA
- Oregon
- Oklahoma State
- USC
- Wake Forest
- Syracuse
- Utah
- Penn State
- Kansas State
- Illinois
- Kentucky
- Texas
- Cincinnati
- North Carolina
- NC State
- Mississippi State
- Tulane