LSU vs. Mississippi State odds, spread, lines: Week 3 college football picks, predictions by computer model
LSU and Mississippi State come back to Death Valley for both teams' SEC opener on Saturday in college football's Week 3 action.
Both teams are coming off statement wins, of sorts: for LSU, a 65-17 thrashing of Southern in Brian Kelly's home debut; and for MSU, a 39-17 road win on the road at Arizona last weekend.
What do the experts think of this matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.
LSU vs. Mississippi State football picks, predictions
Week 3 college football schedule: LSU vs. Mississippi State
Football Power Index is predicts a victory for LSU, but by a slim margin, with a 56.6 percent chance to defeat Mississippi State at home.
By contrast, the Bulldogs have a 43.4 percent shot at upsetting the Tigers. In all, a close game is expected between two teams still searching for their respective identities.
The oddsmakers are siding with the visitors, as Mississippi State comes into the game as slight 2.5 point favorites, according to the opening line set by SI Sportsbook, which set an over/under of 53.5 points for the game.
LSU fared very well in the latest FPI 131 college football rankings, coming in at No. 12 overall nationally, according to the prediction computers.
That's good for 5th in the SEC, with the index projecting LSU will win 7.1 games this season and estimates it will be 14.9 points on average better than the teams on its schedule.
Mississippi State jumped LSU on the index after last week, moving up 4 spots to the No. 9 position nationally, and is projected to win 8.1 games this year.
AP top 25 voters declined to add either LSU or Mississippi State in the latest polls, although the Bulldogs did receive 43 votes overall. LSU did not receive any votes in the new rankings.
College Football Power Index
ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.
College football rankings
According to AP top 25 poll
- Georgia
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Clemson
- Oklahoma
- USC
- Oklahoma State
- Kentucky
- Arkansas
- Michigan State
- BYU
- Miami
- Utah
- Tennessee
- NC State
- Baylor
- Florida
- Wake Forest
- Ole Miss
- Texas
- Penn State
- Pittsburgh
- Texas A&M
- Oregon