$2.3 million QB could be No. 1 pick in 2026 NFL Draft with playoff performance

ESPN's Jordan Rodgers believes a certain $2.3 million quarterback prospect has more NFL upside than the Heisman Trophy winner.

This Big Ten quarterback could make a big leap to the top of draft boards with a successful playoff run, according to ESPN's Jordan Rodgers. | David Rodriguez Munoz / USA TODAY NETWORK

Discussions regarding the 2026 NFL Draft class have already begun in earnest, with analysts debating which collegiate passer deserves the top spot on the board. While most observers consider Indiana's Fernando Mendoza, this year's Heisman Trophy winner, to be a lock for the first overall selection, not everyone agrees that the Hoosiers star is the best long-term professional prospect available.

College football analyst Jordan Rodgers appeared on ESPN’s Get Up on Friday to advocate for a different signal-caller, one he believes possesses superior physical tools. This player, whose name, image, and likeness valuation is $2.3 million according to On3, has shown elite traits that could set him apart from the pack during the postseason.

The debate centers on the difference between a high floor and a high ceiling. While the Indiana standout offers safety and production, Rodgers argued that teams drafting in the top 10 prioritize raw potential and athletic upside above all else.

Some prefer this Big Ten star QB over Fernando Mendoza

Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore is the talent Rodgers believes could surge to QB1 status. Despite Mendoza's breakout season, Rodgers sees the Oregon starter as the more natural professional prospect due to his mechanics and arm talent.

“I think he absolutely can,” Rodgers said regarding Moore’s chances of becoming the No. 1 pick. “He has more upside than Fernando Mendoza. I love Mendoza, but the mobility of Dante Moore and also the fluid throwing motion, he’s the most natural thrower in this entire draft class.”

Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore recently appeared at No. 2 overall in an NFL mock draft published in The Athletic, although the 20-year-old signal-caller still must declare for the draft. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rodgers emphasized that specific physical traits give Moore an advantage in modern NFL evaluations. He noted the sophomore's capacity to alter arm angles and maintain accuracy even when forced off his spot. ESPN has been pumping the brakes on Mendoza as of late, with another analyst explicitly stating the Hoosiers' star isn't close to being the draft's top prospect.

“That means his ability to change arm angles, to take pace off the ball, to have great ball location off-platform,” Rodgers said. “Something that [I] don’t think Mendoza excels at as much as Dante Moore or [Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback] Ty Simpson.”

"I think he absolutely can."@JRodgers11 believes Dante Moore could play his way to the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft 👀 pic.twitter.com/WZTVCO8stS

— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) December 19, 2025

The Get Up analyst concluded that while Mendoza offers a safer floor, the draft’s premium selections are reserved for dynamic potential. This aligns with recent history cited by fellow analyst Todd McShay, who warned that quarterbacks with fewer than 20 collegiate starts, like Moore, often face steeper learning curves. However, the lack of competition in the 2026 class could mitigate that risk.

Moore must also weigh the departure of offensive coordinator Will Stein to the Kentucky Wildcats as he considers his future.

The Ducks will host the James Madison Dukes at Autzen Stadium on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET, with coverage on TNT, HBO Max, and truTV.