3,500-Yard QB Facing Surprise First-Round Snub in 2026 NFL Draft Projections

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson is coming off a productive season where he threw for 3,567 yards and 28 touchdowns. Despite those statistics, some NFL draft experts believe the Crimson Tide signal-caller will not be selected in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft.

ESPN's Matt Miller released his latest big board rankings on Monday, placing Simpson at No. 40 overall. This ranking would keep the Alabama star out of the first round and represents a significant shift from other projections that have viewed him as a top-15 talent.

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Miller discussed the ranking on ESPN's Get Up, noting that his conversations with NFL teams do not reflect a first-round consensus. He indicated that while media narratives remain high on Simpson, professional scouts are expressing more caution regarding his pro outlook.

Why NFL scouts are cautious about Ty Simpson as a first round pick

The discrepancy between production and draft positioning often comes down to how NFL front offices value specific traits over college results. Miller noted that while teams recognize the quarterback need across the league, they are hesitant to assign Simpson a first-round grade at this stage.

"I can't find one team that tells me they believe he will go in the first round," Miller said on Get Up. "What you get is a lot of teams that say, 'yeah, I think someone else will do it. We don't value him there, but we think someone else will do it based on quarterback need, positional value.'"

“I have him as the No. 40 overall player in this draft.”

—@nfldraftscout joins to talk through Ty Simpson's NFL draft stock latest 👀 pic.twitter.com/EI6iJXUFMw
— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) March 30, 2026

This wait-and-see approach by NFL clubs affects more than just Simpson’s draft stock; it also impacts the SEC landscape and the overall quarterback market.

If a high-volume passer from a premier program like Alabama slides into the second round, it suggests a league-wide recalibration of what constitutes a franchise cornerstone.

Where Simpson could land in 2026 NFL Draft

Miller’s mock draft specifically projected Simpson at No. 33 to the New York Jets. In this scenario, Simpson would serve as a developmental backup to Geno Smith rather than being thrust into an immediate starting role. The Jets' current QB backups are Brady Cook and Bailey Zappe.

"New York can take him here, allow him a year to develop behind Geno Smith, then evaluate his future," Miller explained. He pointed to Simpson's accuracy in clean pockets as a strength but highlighted questionable decision-making and struggles late in the season as reasons for the slide.

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson (15) passes against the Indiana Hoosiers in the first half of the 2026 Rose Bowl. | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The national perspective on Simpson mirrors the conversations surrounding Shedeur Sanders a year ago, where speculative value did not always align with internal team grades. While the media often pushes quarterbacks up the board due to positional scarcity, NFL franchises appear more disciplined regarding Simpson's actual ceiling.

In my latest NFL mock draft, Simpson goes undrafted in the first round. The 2026 NFL Draft will take place from April 23 to April 25 in Pittsburgh.