$5.4 million QB predicted to make history next college football season

Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) rouses the fans when entering Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium before a game against the Vanderbilt Commodores. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Texas entered 2025 as the AP preseason No. 1 but finished 10–3 and missed the College Football Playoff, closing the year ranked No. 12 in the final polls after a 41–27 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl win over Michigan.

Despite a third straight double-digit win season, the finish felt like a disappointment relative to expectations and placed renewed pressure on quarterback Arch Manning, the program, and head coach Steve Sarkisian to convert recruiting hype into postseason success.

Manning’s 2025 numbers were solid but not gaudy, as he threw for 3,163 yards, 26 touchdowns, and seven interceptions while completing 61.4% of his passes and adding 399 rushing yards and 10 rushing scores.

While he showed flashes of poise and big-play ability, inconsistency, turnovers, and decision-making drew criticism, particularly given his pedigree as a preseason Heisman favorite and one of the most highly recruited quarterbacks in recent memory.

That scrutiny was amplified by Manning’s status as the most marketable athlete in college sports, carrying an NIL valuation of roughly $5.4 million and placing an even brighter spotlight on his performance.

Despite a disappointing first full season as the starter, one college football analyst believes Manning could be in line for a historic 2026 campaign.

On Monday, CBS Sports writer Cody Nagel offered a bold prediction, projecting that Manning will break Colt McCoy’s single-season Texas passing touchdown record of 34 in 2026.

Former Texas quarterback Colt McCoy acknowledges the crowd after being introduced as a member of the Texas Longhorns Hall of Fame | Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

McCoy left an indelible Texas legacy during a 53-game career from 2006–09, finishing 45–8 as a starter, the most wins by an NCAA Division I quarterback, while piling up 13,253 passing yards and 112 touchdown passes.

His signature 2008 season produced 3,859 yards and a Texas single-season record 34 passing touchdowns, capped by a Fiesta Bowl victory and consensus national recognition.

McCoy was a two-time All-American and two-time Heisman finalist (2008, 2009), collected numerous national awards and school records, and remains one of the defining quarterbacks in program history.

Nagel’s belief that Manning could eclipse McCoy’s historic 2008 mark centers on Texas’ aggressive effort to build a stronger supporting cast around him.

The most notable addition is former five-star wide receiver Cam Coleman (Auburn), a proven playmaker who recorded 708 receiving yards and five touchdowns on 56 catches in 12 games during the 2025 season and is expected to command a significant target share in 2026.

Texas also addressed the offensive line and skill positions through the transfer portal, adding linemen Jonte Newman (Texas A&M), Dylan Sikorski (Oregon State), and Melvin Siani (Wake Forest), along with running backs Hollywood Smothers (NC State) and Raleek Brown (Arizona State).

Those moves reflect a clear push by Sarkisian’s staff to improve pass protection and offensive efficiency, creating the timing, spacing, and scoring opportunities necessary for Manning to realistically challenge one of the most enduring records in Texas football history.

Read More at College Football HQ

• National title winning head coach viewed as ‘only hope’ to save college football

• Nation’s No. 4 overall prospect announces Top 4 schools

• $5.4 million QB has the ‘most to prove’ next college football season

• College football team loses 34 players to transfer portal