$5.4 million QB has the ‘most to prove’ next college football season

Texas entered 2025 as the AP preseason No. 1 for the first time in program history, largely because of the perceived upside of quarterback Arch Manning.

Yet the Longhorns finished the year 10–3, landed at No. 12 in the final AP Top 25, and were left outside of the College Football Playoff, a clear gap between preseason hopes and the eventual outcome.

In his first full season as the Longhorns’ primary starter, Manning completed 61.4% of his passes for 3,163 yards with 26 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions across 13 games, while also adding 399 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns.

Despite seemingly impressive numbers on the surface, criticism of Manning centered on the weight of expectations, including Heisman Trophy buzz and early No. 1 overall NFL Draft chatter, along with a low-output debut stretch and accuracy and decision-making lapses that were frequently highlighted by national pundits.

Multiple outlets documented an early-season slump and even labeled his debut “hard to watch,” before Manning showed noticeable improvement late in the schedule and closed the year with signature wins over Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Texas A&M and Michigan.

Now, with Manning set to return in 2026, attention has shifted to whether that late-season progress can carry over.

On Thursday, Fox Sports’ Laken Litman listed Manning as the player “with the most to prove” entering the 2026 season, arguing that the combination of preseason hype, an uneven 2025 debut and Texas’s playoff ambitions places him under more scrutiny than any other college quarterback.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning. — Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning throws a pass during the first half against the Texas A&M Aggies | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Manning, the nephew of NFL legends Peyton Manning and Eli Manning, was the consensus five-star and No. 1 overall recruit in the 2023 class, arriving at Texas after one of the highest-profile recruiting cycles in recent memory.

That pedigree fueled a rapid rise in preseason expectations four semesters later and has also translated off the field, with Manning reportedly holding the highest NIL valuation in college sports at $5.4 million.

With the Longhorns aiming for a more successful 2026 season, head coach Steve Sarkisian and his staff have worked the transfer portal and recruiting trail to add playmakers and depth around Manning.

Notable offseason additions include transfer wide receiver Cam Coleman (Auburn), offensive tackle Melvin Siani (Wake Forest), and running backs Hollywood Smothers (NC State) and Raleek Brown (Arizona State), a group that helped Texas secure the No. 3-ranked transfer class.

Texas also holds the No. 7-rated 2026 recruiting class, highlighted by five-star Texas native Jermaine Bishop (the No. 2 athlete in the cycle), four-star linebacker Tyler Atkinson (No. 4 linebacker), and four-star running back Derrek Cooper (No. 10 running back).

Those moves materially change Manning’s supporting cast, but whether he can capitalize on that upgraded environment in 2026 will shape how his college career is ultimately viewed, and could have implications for his long-term NFL Draft outlook.

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