SEC quarterback is betting favorite to be No. 1 overall pick in 2026 NFL Draft

A lot can change between now and the 2026 NFL Draft in April, from what happens the rest of this college football season to the NFL Combine and pre-draft interviews, etc.

But the debate over who should be the No. 1 overall pick is already well underway.

Per the latest odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson is the betting favorite to be the top pick at +200.

Following Simpson are Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza (+300), Oregon quarterback Dante Moore (+600), Miami edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. (+700), South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers (+700) and then a big dropoff to LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier (+2700) and USC quarterback Jayden Maiava (+3300).

Simpson and Mendoza are also the favorites for the Heisman Trophy.

Simpson, in his first year as a starter at Alabama as a redshirt-junior, has passed for 2,184 yards, 20 touchdowns and 1 interception (plus two rushing TDs) for the No. 4-ranked Crimson Tide (7-1, 5-0 SEC). He's led the Tide to seven straight wins since a season-opening loss to Florida State. That streak included four straight wins over ranked opponents -- Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee.

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson (15) | Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

In SEC play, the 6-foot-2 Simpson is averaging 264.4 passing yards per game with 11 TDs and 1 INT.

The last No. 1 overall pick from Alabama was quarterback Bryce Young in 2023. Before that, the other two Crimson Tide stars to go No. 1 were QB Harry Gilmer in 1948 and QB Joe Namath in the 1965 AFL Draft.

Mendoza, meanwhile, especially fits the NFL mold at 6-foot-5, 225 pounds. He's passed for 1,923 yards, 24 TDs and 3 INTs (plus 3 rushing TDs) for No. 2-ranked Indiana (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten). He's played well in every game and notably led the Hoosiers to a 30-20 win over then-No. 3 Oregon on the road, passing for 215 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.

Mendoza was a lightly-recruited prospect out of high school in Miami who landed at Cal, spending three years there while taking over the starting job during his redshirt freshman season in 2023.

The 2026 NFL Draft runs April 23-25 live from Pittsburgh.

The last three No. 1 overall draft picks and seven of the last eight have been quarterbacks.

The teams most likely to end up with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft include the Tennessee Titans (1-7), who took QB Cam Ward first overall in the last draft. The New York Jets (1-7), who would be likely to draft a QB; the New Orleans Saints (1-7), who badly need a franchise QB.

The Cleveland Browns (2-6), ditto; the Oakland Raiders (2-6), who are also in need of a franchise QB; the Miami Dolphins (2-6), who could look to secure a replacement for QB Tua Tagovailoa; and the New York Giants (2-6), who are likely set at QB with 2025 first-rounder Jaxson Dart.