College Football Playoff: 8 Teams Chasing Their First Berth in 2026

Eight programs that have never played in the College Football Playoff, led by unbeaten UCLA, Utah and BYU, reach the midpoint of the 2026 season with resumes and efficiency numbers strong enough to change that in December.

UCLA (5-0) sits third nationally in ESPN’s strength of record, Kentucky (5-1) ranks fourth and Mississippi State (4-1) ranks 10th, while Utah and BYU both rank among the top 15 in ESPN’s Football Power Index after Week 6.

Strength of record measures how difficult a team’s record would be to achieve against its schedule, and FPI estimates how strong a team is going forward. Those two numbers split sharply for several of these teams, so we leaned on both, plus ESPN’s efficiency ratings and Game on Paper’s opponent-adjusted data.

The 12-team format gives automatic bids to the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions, and seeds 5 through 12 play first-round games at the higher seed’s stadium. That conference route matters most for the three Big 12 teams below. The teams are listed in order of our projection, based on games through Oct. 10.

UCLA Bruins chase a home game

UCLA running back Wayne Knight, left, and wide receiver Landon Ellis celebrate a touchdown | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

UCLA has the clearest path of the eight, and we project the Bruins as the No. 6 seed, which would put a first-round playoff game in the Rose Bowl.

Head coach Bob Chesney’s team won 17-15 at Oregon on Saturday, UCLA’s first win in Eugene since 2004. The Bruins forced seven turnovers and held a Ducks offense averaging 505.5 yards per game to 272, while running back Wayne Knight ran for 103 yards and scored both touchdowns.

“We just played physical; we played tough,” Chesney said after the win.

The metrics don’t agree on the Bruins. UCLA ranks third in strength of record but 36th in FPI, and ESPN’s efficiency ratings land in between at 17th overall and 11th on defense.

Quarterback Nico Iamaleava threw for 162 yards in the first half before an injury kept him out after halftime, and backup Ty Dieffenbach threw a touchdown pass in relief. “He wasn’t close to being able to come back today,” Chesney said of Iamaleava.

Five of UCLA’s final seven games are at home, and the schedule doesn’t include Ohio State or Indiana. Trips to Minnesota and Michigan plus the USC finale remain, so an 11-1 finish would likely secure a top-six seed and 10-2 would still keep the Bruins in the field.

Can Kentucky keep winning close games?

Kentucky football coach Will Stein — Kentucky’s coach Will Stein came out with players against LSU at Kroger Field Saturday evening | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Kentucky owns one of the best resumes in the country, and we project the Wildcats as the No. 9 seed despite an FPI ranking of 30th.

Head coach Will Stein’s team won 31-21 at Texas A&M, then beat South Carolina and LSU by identical 35-34 overtime scores on consecutive weekends. Its only loss came 45-17 against Alabama. Stein’s 5-1 start is the best by a first-year Kentucky coach since Alpha Brumage in 1913, according to the school.

Against LSU, quarterback Kenny Minchey threw for 246 yards, 206 of them after halftime, and ran in the winning two-point conversion. Running back CJ Baxter added 123 yards and two touchdowns, including a 77-yard run on the first play, as Kentucky piled up 401 yards against a defense that entered allowing 220.6 per game.

“We are a really good football team. Really good football team. People count us out,” Stein said.

The advanced numbers support the resume without suggesting dominance. Kentucky ranks 21st in ESPN overall efficiency, 19th in adjusted net EPA and 16th in its adjusted defensive EPA. Still, depth is a concern, because the Wildcats played LSU without three linebackers, two defensive backs and a defensive lineman.

Trips to Oklahoma, Tennessee and Missouri remain. A 10-2 finish would make Kentucky a strong at-large candidate, but 9-3 would leave the Wildcats waiting on the committee.

Utah Utes own the best metrics

Utah Utes quarterback Devon Dampier (4) celebrates during the second half against the Kansas Jayhawks | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Utah has the strongest statistical profile of these eight, and we project the Utes as the Big 12 champion and No. 11 seed.

The Utes rank 10th in FPI, seventh in ESPN overall efficiency, seventh in offensive efficiency and 11th in adjusted net EPA. They’ve won all five games by at least 14 points, which Utah says has happened only three other times in program history.

Quarterback Devon Dampier threw for 238 yards and three touchdowns and ran for 71 yards and another score in Saturday’s 41-24 win over Kansas. Running back Wayshawn Parker added 171 yards, including a 90-yard touchdown run.

The resume doesn’t match the ratings yet. Utah ranks 18th in strength of record, and ESPN places its schedule to date 114th. The pass defense also gave up 17.5 yards per completion to Kansas.

“That said, we weren’t good enough in pass defense,” head coach Morgan Scalley said.

Home games against Houston and BYU offer resume-building chances, and the Utes avoid Texas Tech and Oklahoma State in the regular season. The Nov. 7 game with BYU could decide which unbeaten Big 12 team controls the conference race.

Is Mississippi State being overlooked?

Mississippi State head coach Jeff Lebby smiles while standing on the sideline during a college football game against Alabama | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Mississippi State’s resume is stronger than its most recent score, and we project the Bulldogs as the No. 12 seed.

Head coach Jeff Lebby’s team is 4-1 with wins at Minnesota and South Carolina and a 31-24 home win over Missouri. That ranks 10th in strength of record, ahead of BYU, Utah, Missouri, Northwestern and Oklahoma State.

The offense drives the case. ESPN ranks it 16th in efficiency, and sixth in adjusted offensive EPA. Still, the Bulldogs rank 23rd in adjusted net EPA and 27th in FPI because the other side of the ball hasn’t kept pace.

The 56-23 loss to Alabama showed that imbalance. Mississippi State ran for 18 yards and allowed 483, even though quarterback Kamario Taylor threw for 258 yards and three touchdowns.

The remaining schedule ranks 17th nationally and includes LSU, Oklahoma, Texas and Ole Miss. The Bulldogs need at least two of those wins to hold a spot in the field.

BYU’s Notre Dame test arrives Saturday

BYU Cougars quarterback Bear Bachmeier (47) warms up prior to a game against the Iowa State Cyclones | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

BYU has the most balanced profile of the group, and we have the Cougars as our first team out, one big win away from the field.

The Cougars are 5-0 and rank 14th in FPI, 11th in strength of record and 10th in ESPN overall efficiency, with the offense 22nd and the defense 18th.

Quarterback Bear Bachmeier threw for 329 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 109 yards in Friday’s 24-10 win over Iowa State. He became the first BYU quarterback since Taysom Hill with 300 passing and 100 rushing yards in the same game, and BYU started 5-0 for a third straight season for the first time in program history.

The defense held Iowa State to 200 yards, but the offense went 0-for-3 on fourth down.

“The efficiency on offense wasn’t good enough. We were 0-for-3 on fourth downs,” head coach Kalani Sitake said.

A win over Notre Dame would give BYU its signature result, and a loss wouldn’t affect its Big 12 standing. The Nov. 7 trip to Utah could settle the conference race.

Can Northwestern’s offense carry it in?

Northwestern Wildcats quarterback Aidan Chiles (0) looks to pass against the Ball State Cardinals | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Northwestern has the offense to compete with the Big Ten’s top tier, but we have the Wildcats outside the field until the resume catches up.

ESPN ranks Northwestern 10th in offensive efficiency, and second in adjusted offensive EPA and ninth in adjusted net EPA. Strength of record tells a slower story at 23rd, along with a 20th-place FPI ranking.

Quarterback Aidan Chiles, who cracked our Big Ten QB rankings last week, completed 17 of 23 passes for 272 yards and three touchdowns and ran for another in Saturday’s 45-14 win over Ball State. He’s the first Northwestern quarterback since at least 1995 to account for 15 touchdowns before throwing an interception, and receiver Griffin Wilde added eight catches for 144 yards. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly topped our ranking of the best new coordinator hires.

“This is a special group that we get to coach,” head coach David Braun said.

Northwestern beat Penn State 34-13 and lost 29-23 at Indiana. Trips to Oregon and Ohio State and a home game against Iowa remain, so 10-2 with one more marquee win would give the Wildcats a credible at-large case.

Missouri Tigers face the toughest road

Missouri Tigers head coach Eli Drinkwitz on the field prior to the game against the Texas A&M Aggies | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Missouri has a playoff-caliber defense, but the Tigers sit outside our field because the hardest part of their schedule is still ahead.

Head coach Eli Drinkwitz’s team bounced back from a 31-24 loss at Mississippi State by beating Florida 45-17 and Texas A&M 27-6. Running back Jamal Roberts ran 34 times for 222 yards and two touchdowns against the Aggies, his second straight 200-yard game.

ESPN ranks Missouri’s defense ninth in efficiency, and eighth in adjusted defensive EPA. The Tigers also rank 17th in FPI and 18th in adjusted net EPA. However, ESPN ranks the offense 49th, so the passing game may need to carry more when Roberts gets slowed down.

ESPN ranks Missouri’s remaining schedule second nationally. Ole Miss, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, Kentucky and Oklahoma are still on the schedule, and the Mississippi State loss could cost Missouri in a close comparison with the Bulldogs.

How does Oklahoma State get in?

OSU head coach Eric Morris walks on the field before a game against the Central Florida Knights | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Oklahoma State has the best turnaround story of the eight but the weakest numbers, so the Cowboys’ path runs through the Big 12 title game.

Head coach Eric Morris’ team opened with a 24-10 loss at Tulsa, then won four straight, including a 39-31 upset of Oregon and a 41-24 win at West Virginia. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker, whom David Pollack projects as the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, threw for 304 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another in Saturday’s 42-28 win over UCF. Safety Evan Jackson’s 28-yard fumble return broke the game open after a 21-21 halftime tie.

“I’ll be surprised if [Mestemaker] is in college next year,” UCF head coach Scott Frost said.

The metrics lag behind. Oklahoma State ranks 42nd in FPI, 32nd in strength of record, 32nd in ESPN overall efficiency and 28th in adjusted net EPA, the lowest marks in this group. Oregon’s 3-2 record has also reduced the value of the September upset.

The Cowboys don’t play BYU or Utah in the regular season, but Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Arizona State remain. A Big 12 title would deliver an automatic bid, while an at-large berth would require a near-perfect finish.

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