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College Football Playoff: Duke-Virginia result changes CFP standings for ACC

Find out how the ACC Championship impacts the College Football Playoff and whether Duke or Virginia will make the CFP bracket. James Madison is anxiously watching as chaos looms.
Jonathan Adams|
Dec 6, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) runs the ball during the first quarter against the Virginia Cavaliers during the 2025 ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images
Dec 6, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) runs the ball during the first quarter against the Virginia Cavaliers during the 2025 ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

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Duke Blue DevilsVirginia CavaliersJames Madison Dukes

The final College Football Playoff bracket is heavily dependent on the outcome of the ACC Championship. A Duke win would create a path for CFP chaos, while a Virginia victory would make for a less exciting Selection Sunday.

Heading into the ACC Championship, Duke had a less than 1% chance to make the postseason, per The Athletic. It appears that even a Duke win would not be enough for a five-loss Blue Devils team to crash the postseason party.

Virginia's path is much more clear with a 53% chance to make the College Football Playoff heading into the ACC title clash. A Virginia win likely puts the Cavaliers in the CFP bracket, but a loss opens up the door for James Madison to advance.

Here's how the ACC Championship impacts the College Football Playoff picture.

Can Duke make the College Football Playoff?

The data says that even an ACC championship would not be enough for Duke to make the College Football Playoff. A more likely scenario is James Madison punching their ticket to the College Football Playoff if Duke defeats Virginia.

JMU had a 47% chance to make the CFP prior to the conference title games. Time will tell if the committee would really include two Group of Six teams over an ACC champion.

As a reminder, the five highest ranked conference champions secure a spot in the College Football Playoff bracket. One of these spots is dedicated to the highest ranked Group of Six champion.

Virginia can make the College Football Playoff by winning the ACC Championship

Things are much less complicated for Virginia. The Cavaliers need to win the ACC Championship to secure a postseason spot.

A Virginia loss would likely eliminate the Cavaliers from contention given the team is already ranked No. 17. Virginia needs an ACC title to advance to the College Football Playoff.

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Jonathan Adams
JONATHAN ADAMS

Jonathan Adams is a veteran sports writer who has written for notable outlets and interviewed some of the top athletes for more than 10 years. Since 2015, his sports coverage has been read by tens of millions and has been prominently featured on Heavy, NFL.com, Yahoo Sports, Pro Football Talk, CBS Sports, Bleacher Report and more. Jonathan is a member of the Football Writers Association of America (FWAA) and a voter for the Maxwell Award and Eddie Robinson Coach of the Year. He has interviewed many of the biggest stars in sports — Bryce Harper, Jayden Daniels, Justin Jefferson, Bijan Robinson and Micah Parsons to name a few — and has traveled the country to cover the College Football Playoff, NFL draft, Masters, March Madness, Senior Bowl, McDonald’s All-American Game and beyond. Jonathan Adams studied at the University of Central Florida and The Seattle School of Theology & Psychology. He holds master degrees in sport business management, business administration and theology & culture.

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