Former College Football Playoff Program In Danger of Falling Behind

The trajectory for the Tennessee Volunteers is no longer pointing straight up.

After a breakthrough 2024 season that suggested the program was ready to become a consistent SEC contender, 2025 served as a reminder of how fragile that climb can be. Now, entering the 2026 college football season, Tennessee is not chasing momentum. It is trying to prove it did not lose it.

That distinction matters more than anything else.

Under Josh Heupel, the Volunteers have built an identity around explosive offense and tempo. That is not going to change. What has changed is the margin for error. An 8-5 season might be acceptable at other programs, but at a time when the SEC is as deep as it has ever been, it is the kind of record that quietly pushes a team out of the contender tier.

That is exactly where Tennessee is trending if it is not careful.

The biggest question entering 2026 is at quarterback. With Joey Aguilar gone, the offense will be handed to either redshirt freshman George MacIntyre or five-star freshman Faizon Brandon. That is a massive gamble for a team that is supposed to be competing for a College Football Playoff spot.

Young quarterbacks can win games, but they are just as likely to cost you one or two along the way. In the SEC, that is often the difference between a playoff berth and another step back.

That is why the concern is real.

Tennessee Volunteers head coach Josh Heupel during the first half. | Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

On “The Paul Finebaum Show,” Andy Staples pointed directly to the risk Tennessee is facing.

"That’s the thing, if Tennessee is not careful, then they fall behind," Staples said. "And I'll be curious to see what they look like offensively... I just don't know where they are from a talent perspective, regarding, you know, relative to the rest of the league right now."

And right now, it is not at the top.

The offense will score points. It always does under Heupel. The real issue is whether the defense can hold up its end of the bargain.

Last season, Tennessee ranked No. 92 in total defense and No. 92 in scoring defense. Those numbers are not just bad. They are disqualifying for a team with playoff aspirations. You cannot win at a high level in the SEC with a defense that struggles that much.

That is why the hire of Jim Knowles is the most important move of Tennessee’s offseason.

Knowles built elite defenses at Ohio State and helped guide a championship unit in 2024. His system is proven, but it is also complex. That creates another layer of uncertainty. Tennessee does not have the luxury of waiting two or three years for the defense to fully develop.

It needs results now. If the defense is not significantly improved in Year 1, the season will likely follow the same script as 2025.

That is the reality Tennessee is facing.

This is no longer a program playing with house money. Expectations have changed, and with those expectations comes pressure. Tennessee is not being judged on potential anymore. It is being judged on results. That is what happens when you show you can reach the College Football Playoff. Now you are expected to stay there.

The difference between Tennessee becoming a consistent SEC contender or slipping back into the middle of the conference will come down to two things. Can the young quarterback play steady football, and can the defense take a major step forward under Knowles?

If the answer to both is yes, Tennessee is back in the playoff conversation. If not, the gap between them and the top of the SEC will only continue to grow.

And in this conference, once you fall behind, it is a lot harder to catch back up.

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