Former National Coach of the Year Named College Football’s Most Likely Coach to Be Fired

In college football, things can change fast. One day, you are on top of the world and look like the savior of the program; the next, you are on the hot seat.

That's because the sport is a results-driven business. You have to constantly update your resume. That's the reality for Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell. He was hired before the 2020 season in hopes of revitalizing the program.

By 2022, he seemed like he was on the path of doing that after a 10-3 season. He followed that up with a 13-1 season in 2023, in which they won the ACC but were snubbed from the College Football Playoff after losing star quarterback Jordan Travis. This resulted in him winning the National Coach of the Year award.

Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell gestures against the Florida Gators. | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

It looked like Norvell was destined to make the Seminoles a perennial contender and stabilize the program. However, things changed in 2024. Florida State started the season ranked No. 10, but went 2-10, one of the worst seasons in program history.

In 2025, they started the year with a big win over the Alabama Crimson Tide, making many think 2024 was a fluke.

However, that wasn't the case as they went 5-7. Now, Norvell enters the 2026 season squarely on the hot seat. In fact, Brooks Austin of "The Film Guy Network" said there aren't many scenarios in which Norvell saves his job.

"I think Mike Norvell is already fried," Austin said. "I think they know they're firing him. I think, hey, unless we go 9-3 or something like that out of nowhere, we're probably going to get rid of you, and we're probably going to eat whatever's left of the buyout. It's got to be embarrassing for the athletic department to fire him. So, it's got to be like 8-4."

The issue is that Norvell's buyout is large. His buyout is 85% of his remaining contract, and from 2025 to 2031, Norvell is scheduled to make $72.7 million. After last season, the buyout is still $53.3 million. The buyout can be paid in full or in monthly installments through the 2031 season.

Teams don't love spending that amount of money to move off a coach. They usually prefer to stick it out and see what happens. The issue in this new era of college football is that you can't always afford to wait because you could be left behind.

It is quite the conundrum for a once proud program hoping to get back to ACC relevancy.

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