Heisman Winner Fernando Mendoza Not Ranked as No. 1 Prospect in 2026 NFL Draft

Sometimes, the obvious choice isn't the correct choice, and that axiom could be true in the upcoming NFL Draft. For months, Indiana's Fernando Mendoza has been the clear de facto No. 1 prospect (and potential pick) in the upcoming Draft. He's the nation's most reliable veteran QB, and in a draft where Dante Moore, Arch Manning, and LaNorris Sellers decided to stay in school, Mendoza has been the odds-on favorite to be No. 1.

But The Athletic's Nick Baumgardner says, "Not so fast." In a recent NFL Draft prospect rankings, Baumgardner dropped Mendoza to No. 2. Baumgardner doesn't have any other quarterbacks in his top 20 prospects, which tracks with most Draft analysts' sentiment, although a few have made big pronouncements about Alabama's Ty Simpson.

The New No. 1 NFL Draft Prospect

But Baumgardner jumped Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love to the top overall prospect spot. Love has long been accepted as the top running back in the Draft-- with about as clear of a case as Mendoza's claim on the top QB spot. No other running backs made Baumgardner's list.

The Issues for NFL Running Back Draft Picks

But the NFL has long disfavored running backs as high draft picks. The last time a running back was chosen with the first pick in the NFL Draft was the 1995 Draft, when Penn State's Ki-Jana Carter was the top player chosen. The failure of Carter, who ran for just 1,144 yards in a short and injured-plagued NFL career, likely didn't do any favors for running backs as a top Draft prospect position.

In the last two years combined, there has only been a single first-round running back pick-- the Raiders' selection of Boise State standout Ashton Jeanty last year with the sixth pick in the Draft. In the last decade, In the last six NFL Drafts, the only running backs chosen in the top ten were Jeanty and Bijan Robinson, who went eighth in the 2023 Draft.

Love's Claim to Top Prospect Status

But Baumgardner sees Love as an NFL unicorn. "Love has a blend of power, balance and acceleration that is among the best we've seen in years," wrote Baumgardner. He compared Love favorably to Jeanty and says the Notre Dame standout is "at least as good (if not better) than Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs" who were taken in the 2023 Draft.

Love rushed for 2,882 yards and 36 touchdowns in three seasons at Notre Dame. He also was a solid receiver with 63 catches for 594 yards and six more scores through the air. After a 4.36 second 40-yard dash at the NFL Draft Combine, Love has long been expected to exceed typical running back status.

But will his elite prospect value allow him to bump aside Carter as the most recent top running back pick? If the uniqueness of the player is the defining tribute, Baumgardner's case for Love might well hold up.