$2.6 million QB ranked No. 1 NFL Draft prospect amid College Football Playoff

Indiana enters the College Football Playoff national championship game on January 19, riding one of the most improbable runs in modern college football.

The Hoosiers finished the regular season unbeaten, captured the Big Ten title, and earned the No. 1 seed in the expanded playoff before dismantling No. 9 Alabama (38–3) and No. 5 Oregon (56–22) in the first two rounds of the postseason.

Indiana’s dominant Peach Bowl victory over the Ducks cemented the Hoosiers’ place in the national title game, marking the program’s first appearance in a national championship and representing the pinnacle of head coach Curt Cignetti’s rapid rebuild.

At the center of Indiana’s historic 2025 campaign is quarterback Fernando Mendoza, the Cal transfer who arrived in Bloomington after spending his first two seasons with the Golden Bears.

In his lone season at Indiana, Mendoza has delivered elite efficiency and command of the offense, throwing for 3,349 yards with a nation-best 41 touchdowns against just six interceptions, while completing 73% of his passes across 15 games.

That breakout campaign helped guide Indiana to a 15–0 record, earning Mendoza widespread national recognition, becoming Indiana’s first Heisman Trophy winner, adding AP Player of the Year honors, and sweeping the major national quarterback awards.

With Mendoza widely expected to declare for the NFL Draft following the season, speculation has intensified regarding his draft position and potential landing spot.

ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. added fuel to that conversation on Monday by placing Mendoza No. 1 overall on his latest 2026 NFL Draft Big Board following the CFP semifinals.

"Mendoza transferred to Indiana after playing two seasons at Cal, and his game has taken off," Kiper wrote. "The key? He has cut down on sacks, with 22 so far this season after taking 41 in 2024."

"Mendoza is getting the ball out quicker. And while he doesn't have a huge arm, he can make all the necessary NFL-level throws. His ball placement is fantastic. I wouldn't consider him a dual threat, but Mendoza also has enough mobility to pick up first downs as a scrambler."

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza. — Atlanta, GA, USA; Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) reacts after the 2025 Peach Bowl and semifinal game of the College Football Playoff at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Kiper’s Big Board places Mendoza ahead of other highly regarded quarterbacks expected to headline the 2026 NFL Draft class, including Oregon’s Dante Moore and Alabama’s Ty Simpson.

While those passers bring different physical profiles, Mendoza’s combination of efficiency, decision-making, and a proven winning resume has increasingly separated him from the pack in early evaluations.

He has also emerged as one of the sport’s most marketable stars, ranking eighth nationally in NIL valuation at an estimated $2.6 million, a figure that reflects both his on-field success and national profile.

Indiana’s season is not yet complete, as a national title win over Miami would cement the Hoosiers’ campaign as one of the most memorable in college football history and further strengthen Mendoza’s case as the top overall prospect.

Regardless of the outcome, his ascent from transfer addition to Heisman Trophy winner and projected No. 1 pick stands as one of the most notable quarterback rises in recent college football history.

The 2026 NFL Draft is scheduled for April 23–25 in Pittsburgh, but Mendoza’s trajectory suggests the conversation surrounding the first overall selection may already be taking shape.

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