Historic SEC Program Predicted to Miss College Football Playoff in 2026

The Alabama Crimson Tide had a major bounce-back season in 2025 in Year 2 under head coach Kalen DeBoer.

The team went 11-4 in a season in which they made the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. This followed going 9-4 the year before and not making the CFP. There is some optimism for this upcoming season, but that optimism feels conditional rather than guaranteed.

The program is still trying to prove it can maintain elite consistency in a post-transition era. However, the team is replacing several key pieces this offseason, most notably quarterback Ty Simpson.

Simpson threw for 3,567 yards, 28 touchdowns, and five interceptions, while completing 64.5% of his passes. His decision to declare for the 2026 NFL Draft leaves Alabama searching for its third starting quarterback in as many seasons under head coach Kalen DeBoer.

Alabama offensive lineman Geno VanDeMark (56) snaps the ball to Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell (12). | Gary Cosby Jr. / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

That kind of turnover at the most important position is not just inconvenient; it is destabilizing. Even for a program with Alabama’s standard, that level of quarterback churn creates real doubt about offensive continuity heading into a season with playoff expectations.

On "The Paul Finebaum Show," On3's JD PicKell admitted he is not as high on Alabama as many others in the national media landscape. In fact, he does not see another College Football Playoff berth in their future.

"I don't like Alabama as much as everyone else does," PicKell said. "I don't have Alabama in there."

That skepticism reflects a growing belief that last season may have been closer to a peak than a stepping stone. While the roster talent is still strong, the margin for error in the SEC has shrunk enough that reputation alone no longer guarantees playoff positioning.

If the Crimson Tide fails to make the CFP, that would force uncomfortable questions about direction and identity. At Alabama, which has become the gold standard in the sport, it is not good enough to simply remain competitive. The expectation is dominance, and anything short of consistent playoff appearances quickly becomes viewed as underachievement.

This is a program that Nick Saban built into the most dominant dynasty in modern college football, winning six national championships. That legacy still shapes expectations in Tuscaloosa. Fans are not evaluating progress in isolation; they are measuring it against the highest standard in the sport. That is why even a small regression is interpreted as a decline rather than a transition.

That pressure makes the quarterback decision even more critical. That is where the entire season will be shaped. The roster has talent, but not much proven experience under center. Former five-star Keelon Russell and redshirt junior Austin Mack, who followed DeBoer from Washington, are the leading candidates. Russell has thrown just 15 passes in his career, and Mack has thrown only 35.

That lack of real game reps is a major concern, especially in a conference where elite defenses will force young quarterbacks into high-leverage situations early and often.

As the spring months continue and the season approaches, the pressure on DeBoer and his staff continues to rise. This is not just another transition year. It is a defining moment that will shape whether the program is viewed as a long-term powerhouse or one still searching for stability in the post-dynasty era.

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