Is There a Definitive Team to Beat in College Football Heading Into 2026?

The 2026 college football season is a few months away, as teams are just now getting started on spring practices. But even this early in the offseason, one of the biggest questions in the sport is already being debated: Is there truly a team to beat?

The Indiana Hoosiers football enter the season as the defending national champions after an impressive 16-0 record in 2025.

Under the leadership of Curt Cignetti, who took over before the 2024 season, the Hoosiers have established themselves as one of the top programs in the sport, boasting an overall record of 27-2 during that span. That kind of sustained success doesn’t happen by accident; it signals a program that has arrived on the national stage.

Although the team had a successful season in 2025, they will need to replace a significant amount of production moving forward. The Hoosiers rank No. 52 in the nation for returning production, at 56%. On offense, they return 54% of their contributors, ranking No. 69 overall, while on defense, they return 58%, which ranks No. 39.

A key player for the upcoming season is quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who is projected to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft after winning the school's first Heisman Trophy.

Indiana's Fernando Mendoza (15) and D'Angelo Ponds (5) kiss the trophy after the College Football Playoff National Championship college football game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on Monday, Jan. 19, 2026. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As the Hoosiers face challenges in replacing many players, a key question arises: Is there a dominant team in the sport? Josh Pate, on his YouTube show, "Josh Pate's College Football Show," expressed his belief that there isn’t a clear frontrunner. He highlighted that last year, no one anticipated Indiana winning it all, which further demonstrates that there wasn't a standout team during the previous season either.

"I asked this question last year... Is there a definitive slam dunk, number one, circle them in red Sharpie team to beat this year?" Pate said. "As of now... I'm going to say I don't have a definitive team to beat."

That idea sounds reasonable on the surface, but it misses a key point about how college football actually works.

I would disagree with that statement. The team to beat isn’t always the most talented team on paper; it’s the team that everyone is chasing. And in college football, that distinction almost always belongs to the defending national champion.

The standard is simple: until you knock off the champ, they are the target. It doesn’t matter how much production they lost or how unpredictable the sport may seem. The defending champion sets the bar for everyone else.

Last season, the Ohio State Buckeyes football were widely viewed as the team to beat entering the year. Despite Indiana defeating them in the Big Ten Championship Game, Ohio State remained a major factor in the College Football Playoff.

After the Miami Hurricanes football eliminated them with a 24-14 win, the spotlight shifted again. That shift didn’t happen because a preseason prediction changed; it happened because results on the field forced it to change.

This season will likely follow a similar pattern. Until Indiana is beaten in a meaningful way, whether late in the regular season or in the playoffs, they remain the measuring stick. Every contender will be judged by one question: can they beat the defending champions?

That’s what makes college football different from the debate Pate is having. There may not be a perfect team, but there is always a team to beat.

And heading into 2026, that team is Indiana, whether people want to admit it or not.