Joel Klatt Makes Stance Clear on Lincoln Riley's Hot Seat Status Ahead of 2026 Season

FOX college football analyst Joel Klatt believes Lincoln Riley resides on a cooler seat than many believe in 2026.

Jan 2, 2026; San Diego, CA, USA; Fox Sports broadcaster Joel Klatt emcees the Holiday Bowl trophy presentation at Snapdragon Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

No Power Four team returns more starters from its 2025 roster than USC, something that should boost its chances of reaching the College Football Playoff after a nine-win regular season last year.

At the same time, one of college football's most brutal conference schedules creates a thin margin between a College Football Playoff and a mark that barely achieves bowl eligibility for the Trojans.

So far, Lincoln Riley's best season at USC is his first. The Trojans collapsed in the back half of 2023, Caleb Williams' final season in the program, barely reached a bowl game in 2024 and lost all but one game against a ranked opponent in 2025. USC's failures against the best competition its schedule offers have created questions about Riley's job security heading into the 2026 season.

FOX college football analyst Joel Klatt is not buying into those discussions. When asked by Colin Cowherd on a recent edition of "The Herd" if losses to Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana would prompt USC to rid itself of Riley, Klatt cited cost as a major roadblock for USC to make a coaching change.

"He would not be fired, nor should he," Klatt said. "Remember, they have the No. 1 recruiting class in the country, and they just built that brand new football building. This is not just about the money you would have to pay him, which is substantial. You would have to buy out the rest of staff, buy out the next coach. You just spent over nine figures building a beautiful football building, then you have to spend probably close to $40 million on a new roster."

Parting ways with a head coach has never been more costly

Jul 28, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; USC Football head coach Lincoln Riley speaks during Media Days at Hilton Chicago. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In the era of the NCAA transfer portal and NIL, program loyalty is largely a value of the past. Money is often a prominent factor in a player's decision to leave after a coach's firing, but coach loyalty is still a prevalent value.

Auburn dealt with this dilemma in the 2026 offseason. It knew firing Hugh Freeze would likely generate a mass exodus of the valuable pieces on its 2025 roster, but the repeated failures in close games became too much to ignore, to the point that it had no choice but to start from scratch.

USC is nowhere close to experiencing the same frequency of excruciatingly painful losses Auburn did in 2024 and 2025. Terminating Riley would not only deplete the Trojans of current assets on their roster but send them scrambling in the early signing period; they currently hold the No. 13 recruiting class in the 2027 cycle, and several of those marquee commitments may renege on their decisions if a firing were to occur.