Josh Pate Issues Warning About One College Football Playoff Team

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are fresh off arguably the best season in program history, finishing 12-2, winning the Big 12 for the first time and reaching the College Football Playoff for the first time as well.

The Red Raiders were led by one of the best defenses in the country, ranking third in total defense, No. 26 in passing defense, first in rushing defense and third in scoring defense. EDGE David Bailey led the nation with 14.5 sacks and is projected to be a first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The defense also featured Butkus Award winner Jacob Rodriguez at linebacker.

However, both of those players are gone, along with other key contributors on the defensive line, such as Lee Hunter and Romelo Heights. Hunter recorded 10.5 tackles for loss, while Heights finished the year with 10 sacks. That level of production will be difficult to replace. While Texas Tech finished with the No. 10-ranked transfer portal class, Josh Pate questioned whether that success can be sustained.

Texas Tech's Brendan Sorsby and offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich. | Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

"Texas Tech's 2025, is that going to be the new norm?" Pate said on 'Josh Pate's College Football Show.' "Is that what we're really saying? You lose David Bailey and Lee Hunter, Romelo Heights is gone, Rodriguez is gone... are we just going to seamlessly backfill like that every year? Yeah, that's what FanDuel is saying. Or if they're not saying that, they're saying that you could make a whole lot of money if you can prove otherwise."

The Red Raiders do return a solid amount of production, ranking No. 12 nationally at 65%. Head coach Joey McGuire also addressed key needs in the transfer portal, landing several impact players to help offset the losses.

One of the most notable additions is former Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby, one of the top-ranked players in the portal. He threw for 7,208 yards, 60 touchdowns and 18 interceptions during his career, while also rushing for 1,295 yards and 22 touchdowns.

He will be tasked with replacing Behren Morton, who started for four seasons at Texas Tech. Last season, Morton threw for 2,780 yards, 22 touchdowns and six interceptions, despite playing through a hairline fracture in his right fibula for much of the year.

While the offensive outlook appears promising, the real question lies on the defensive side of the ball. If Texas Tech can successfully replace its departed stars, the Red Raiders could remain among the Big 12’s elite. However, if there is a drop-off, a step back from last season’s historic run may be inevitable.